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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.03.19 07:03z 121 Lines 6210 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19760_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 03
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190307/0701Z 19760@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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MD 0160 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2019
Areas affected...Central Nebraska into Southeast Nebraska
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 070609Z - 070845Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue for a few
more hours across Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has developed across central
to southeast Nebraska beneath an area of strong frontogenesis and
isentropic ascent. Snowfall rates are likely at their peak intensity
now through the next few hours with slowly lessening snowfall rates
by dawn as lower tropospheric flow veers. Snowfall rates up to 2
inches per hour are likely occurring beneath the heaviest snow band,
but the transitory nature of this band and the short duration of
peak intensity will limit additional accumulations overall.
..Bentley.. 03/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42370188 42400064 42009879 41459738 40689585 40259549
40049552 40039613 40489764 40979946 41240056 41580135 42090214
42370188
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CST Wed Mar 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms will not occur Thursday.
...Eastern Great Basin Vicinity... A weak mid-level shortwave
trough will move through the Great Basin during the morning and
early afternoon hours. Modest surface heating in the eastern Great
Basin combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will lead
to a weakly unstable boundary layer by mid to late morning. As the
mid-level shortwave trough spreads ascent over this region by late
morning, isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop. Storm
coverage should decrease through the afternoon as shortwave ridging
builds over the Rockies.
...Ozarks to TN Valley... Low to mid-level moisture will increase
across the lower Mississippi Valley through the day as surface and
850mb flow strengthens and transports richer moisture across the
western Gulf northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Above
this low-level moisture plume, mid-level lapse rates will steepen
after 00Z. Late in the forecast period, a weak mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi
Valley. As this disturbance moves eastward, ascent associated with
this mid-level impulse and upglide in the warm conveyor may promote
weak/isolated elevated convection after 06Z.
...Pacific Northwest... Shallow convection is expected to develop
beneath a mid-level cold pocket during the day. A meager buoyancy
profile suggests only a few lightning flashes are possible, but
not widespread enough to warrant a thunder area.
..Bentley/Smith.. 03/07/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max will be moving across the
Southwest on Thursday. A weak shortwave trough in this mid-level
flow will lead to lee troughing through the day in southeastern
Colorado. Southwest of this surface low, a strengthening surface
pressure gradient and deep mixing transporting higher mid-level
winds toward the surface will lead to 30 to 40 mph winds across
much of New Mexico. An already dry low-level airmass will dry
further as this downslope flow strengthens through the day. This
will lead to widespread 12 to 17 percent relative humidities in much
of southern, eastern and central New Mexico as well as much of West
Texas. Critical meteorological conditions are likely in northeast New
Mexico as well as the northwest Texas Panhandle and possibly into the
western Oklahoma Panhandle, but recent snowfall and cool temperatures
have left fuels slightly less receptive in this area. Therefore, this
area is covered by the elevated delineation. The area surrounding
Lincoln National Forest and Sierra Blanca peak was intentionally
omitted from the elevated and critical areas due to heavier fuels
and lower relative humidities expected at higher elevations.
..Bentley.. 03/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
TRANS PECOS...
...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop on Friday as lee troughing in southeast Colorado
increases surface winds and downslope flow across the southern High
Plains. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph during
peak mixing on Friday afternoon across much of the region. The best
chance for sub 15 percent relative humidities and these stronger
winds is in far southeast New Mexico and the Trans Pecos. Elsewhere
within the elevated area, minimum relative humidities are expected
to be in the 20 to 25 percent range.
..Bentley.. 03/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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