| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.04.21 23:33z 82 Lines 4158 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7265_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 210331/1143Z 7265@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
MD 0306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana to Northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 310255Z - 310500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with isolated severe, are possible
from northeast Louisiana to northern Mississippi over the next
several hours. Primary threat is gusty winds and perhaps a brief,
weak tornado.
DISCUSSION...Over the last few hours an expanding corridor of
convection has gradually matured into a slow-moving MCS that is
centered over western TN. This activity is shifting east but a
trailing band of scattered strong storms arcs from the body of the
MCS, southwest across northern MS into northeast LA. At times a few
updrafts along the trailing flank have expressed some robustness
with weak supercellular characteristics. 00z soundings from JAN
and SHV exhibited strong surface-6km bulk shear with 0-3km SRH on
the order of 250 M2/S2. Environmental parameters appear adequate
for the maintenance of a few strong storms as this activity spreads
downstream. Even so, aside from gusty winds at times, only a brief
weak tornado appears possible with these pre-frontal storms. Unless
this convection intensifies radar trends do not warrant a severe
thunderstorm watch.
..Darrow/Edwards.. 03/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32959208 34908974 34618871 33408975 32479161 32959208
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750
PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
ArkLaTex region and lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys,
mainly late this afternoon and tonight, with isolated strong/severe
thunderstorms possible.
...01Z Update...
...Ark-La-MS into southern MS/AL... Only change to the previous
outlook was to extend the 2% tornado risk down southeastward into
southeastern MS and far southwestern AL where a few shallow cells
have shown low-level rotation over the past hour. Corridor of
slightly stronger southeasterly surface winds extends from MOB to
PIB. Resulting increase in low-level shear could be contributing
to this mesoscale corridor of more favorable tornado potential,
particularly given the observed storm motion is likely maximizing
streamwise vorticity.
Additionally, as mentioned in MCD 304, a few strong to severe storms
are still possible within a broad warm advection regime across
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Arkansas. Hail and
damaging wind gusts are the main threats, although a brief tornado
or two remains possible given the favorable low-level vertical
shear and storm-relative helicity. The 00Z SHV and JAN soundings
sampled 188 and 211 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, respectively.
...ArkLaTex... As discussed in MCD 305, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are still expected to develop along a cold front
across northeast TX and may pose a hail/wind threat as they move
into the ArkLaTex region after sunset.
..Mosier.. 03/31/2021
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Look, I'm about to buy me a double barreled sawed off shotgun and
show Linus what I think about backspace and delete not working.
-- some anonymous .signature
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
