| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 26.04.21 23:34z 264 Lines 14016 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 232LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 28 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU1DBQ<LU1DBQ
Sent: 210328/2145 @:LU1DBQ.#MOR.BA.ARG.SOAM Sally 7.2.048 $:232LU9DCE
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM NODE-BBS Flat Earth Society
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 69 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 282105Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 69 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM EDT Sun Mar
28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia
Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Extreme southeastern
Pennsylvania Northeastern Virginia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A narrow band of shallow convection along a cold front
will likely persist while moving eastward from Maryland and Virginia
into New Jersey and Delaware the remainder of this afternoon into
this evening. A few damaging gusts will be the main threat, though
a brief tornado with embedded circulations cannot be ruled out.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of
Philadelphia PA to 50 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 68...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion
vector 27040.
...Thompson
WW 68 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 281925Z - 290100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Sun Mar
28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East central and
northeast North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to
70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a pre-frontal
trough across North Carolina, and additional storms may form along
a sea breeze boundary farther to the east. The storms will spread
northeastward toward southeast Virginia and will be capable of
producing damaging winds, as well as an isolated tornado and
marginally severe hail through this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east of
Fayetteville NC to 15 miles east northeast of Norfolk VA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045.
...Thompson
WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE NHK TO
20 NNE NHK TO 30 NE NHK TO 25 SSE DOV TO 30 SSW ACY TO 10 E ACY TO
20 ESE NEL TO 10 S JFK.
..JEWELL..03/29/21
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC005-290140-
DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SUSSEX
ANZ450-451-452-453-454-455-290140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM
WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FAY TO
15 SW GSB TO 30 E RWI TO 40 SE RZZ TO 30 SW ORF TO 25 NNW ORF.
..JEWELL..03/28/21
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 68
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-041-049-053-061-079-103-107-117-133-137-139-143-
147-177-187-282240-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CRAVEN CURRITUCK DUPLIN GREENE
JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL
WASHINGTON
VAC550-710-740-810-282240-
VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH
MD 0303 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69... FOR NEW
JERSEY...DELAWARE....EASTERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021
Areas affected...New Jersey...Delaware....eastern Maryland
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69...
Valid 282305Z - 290100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts remain possible over the next
1-2 hours, mainly over New Jersey.
DISCUSSION...Radar shows relatively high reflectively now entering
western New Jersey, with a few severe gusts measured recently
near Wilmington Delaware. This strongly forced, low-topped line of
convection will likely maintain strength as it moves across central
New Jersey, until reaching the Atlantic Coast where a cooler boundary
layer exists. Observed VWP wind magnitudes of 50-60 kt near 1 km
AGL suggest similar gusts will be possible.
..Jewell.. 03/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...
LAT...LON 40917458 40837430 40757416 40597405 40347400 39817404
39457422 39217451 39067493 39137536 39497565 39767574 40027563
40277534 40577514 40757503 40877477 40917458
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259
PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of wind
damage and a tornado or two are expected across the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into the evening. Isolated wind
and hail will be possible in the Southeast for the next few hours.
...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Storms have developed
along a pre-frontal trough and will continue to progress eastward
into eastern NC and parts of southeast VA. Additional development
is expected to occur along the cold front, but dewpoints mixing
into the low 60s/upper 50s F and early-day cloud cover has limited
surface heating and hindered surface-based instability. The Enhanced
risk area has been adjusted to where the best overlap of buoyancy
and mid-level winds still exists.
...Southeast... Convection along the front continues to progress
southeastward. Probabilities have been adjusted where the airmass
has already been overturned. The expectation for the ongoing
convection is that it will generally weaken as it moves east into a
less unstable airmass. However, isolated wind damage and marginally
severe hail will be possible for the next few hours.
..Wendt.. 03/28/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/
...Synopsis... A band of rain and embedded thunderstorms persists
along and just ahead of a surface cold front from AL/GA across the
Piedmont of the Carolinas/VA, in advance of a midlevel shortwave
trough over the OH/TN Valley regions. The primary associated surface
cyclone will continue to move northeastward near the Saint Lawrence
Valley, while the cold front likewise progresses eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic and southeast Atlantic coasts this evening into early
tonight. There will be a window of opportunity for severe storms
in the zone of destabilization preceding the cold front/rain band
this afternoon across the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay region.
...NC into VA this afternoon/evening... Cloud breaks are occurring
across central/eastern NC and southeastern VA in advance of the
frontal rain band and thicker clouds. Temperatures are warming
into the 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, which is
driving MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and some deepening cumulus near the
SC/NC border. Deep-layer flow and vertical shear will remain strong
over the area this afternoon, per VWPs with 50-60 kt flow within the
lowest 1-3 thousand feet above the ground. The primary uncertainty
will if there can be any substantial destabilization behind the
lead cloud/rain band now moving across NC/VA. Satellite imagery
suggests that the clouds are rather thick and will be sufficient
to limit surface heating through the afternoon to the north of
southeastern VA. In that scenario, the stronger storms would
likely have to evolve from convection along or just ahead of the
pre-frontal band which will cross southeastern VA and northeastern NC
this afternoon, which is where the confidence in damaging convective
gusts (and perhaps a tornado) is a bit higher.
...Mid-Atlantic into southern NY this afternoon/evening...
As previously mentioned, the degree of destabilization is more in
question with northward extent across VA/MD/DE toward eastern PA
and NJ. Surface temperatures in the 65-70 F range will be needed
to much in the way of SBCAPE and a damaging-wind threat with a
forced band of convection along the cold front. Will maintain the
character of the previous outlook, but the northward extent of the
severe threat will depend on some cloud breaks this afternoon.
The Marginal area has been expanding some into southern NY to
reflect the potential for just enough low-level warming/moistening
to support minimal SBCAPE and the low chance for strong/damaging
gusts with a shallow convective band along the cold front.
...SC/GA this afternoon... The convection from overnight persists in
a band just ahead of the surface cold front. Low-level forcing for
ascent will be maintained along the convective band today, and in
tandem with surface heating and modest low-level moisture/buoyancy
could support a continued threat for at least isolated damaging
gusts through the afternoon.
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will amplify as
it crosses the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong cold
front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba down
the Plains into the southern High Plains. A very strong pressure
gradient is expected to develop given the strength of the surface low
(~980mb). This will lead to a broad area of strong winds which will
lead to fire weather concerns across much of the Plains/southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains into eastern Colorado and Kansas...
A tightening pressure gradient, a strengthening low-level jet,
and deep mixing is expected to combine to bring very strong winds
across the southern High Plains into Kansas, Missouri, and parts
of Iowa. Here winds are expected to be 20 to 30 mph across a
broad area with some sustained winds of 35 mph possible. These
strong winds will overspread dry conditions west of the Dryline
across eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, Western Kansas,
and the TX/OK Panhandles. Relative humidity of 8 to 12 percent
combined with the aforementioned winds will bring a broad area
of critical fire weather conditions. Isolated extremely critical
meteorological conditions will be present, but the isolated nature
and fuels which are not extremely dry, will preclude the need for
an extremely critical delineation.
...Northern Plains... Multiple periods of critical fire
weather conditions are expected from Nebraska into the Dakotas
on Monday. First, warming conditions ahead of the cold front will
bring strong southwesterly/westerly surface winds approaching 30 mph
with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. This will be most common
across South Dakota and Nebraska as winds will be a bit weaker across
North Dakota and relative humidity will be slightly higher. However,
behind the cold front, very strong winds are expected. Widespread
30 to 40 mph sustained surface winds are expected from northern
North Dakota to the Nebraska Panhandle. Initially, behind the
front, relative humidity is expected to increase as temperatures
drop but a dry continental airmass will quickly move in and drop
relative humidity to less than 20 percent once again despite cooler
temperatures.
..Bentley.. 03/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Rainy days and Mondays always get me down.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
