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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.05.21 00:32z 119 Lines 5222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8601_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210513/1730Z 8601@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@OUTLOOK.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 13 May 2021 11:28:02 +0000
Thu, 13 May 2021 11:28:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu May 13 11:28:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 13 May 2021 11:27:22 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 13 11:28:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 13 May 2021 11:27:20 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop Saturday across portions
of the southern/central Plains.
...Southern/Central Plains...
A closed upper low should move slowly southward across CA on
Saturday, with downstream shortwave ridging persisting over the
southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Low-level moisture is
expected to gradually increase across the southern/central Plains
through the period, but it should still be fairly limited for this
time of year. At the surface, a weak low may deepen slightly through
the day across part of the southern/central High Plains, with a
dryline/lee trough extending southward from this low over the
southern High Plains. A warm front should be located across parts of
KS by Saturday evening.
Mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much of the
warm sector, with marginally stronger winds aloft in a narrow
corridor from eastern CO into KS and vicinity. Modest effective bulk
shear may temper the overall severe threat to some degree. But,
there will likely be steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an
EML across the southern/central High Plains. These lapse rates
coupled with diurnal heating of the gradually moistening low-level
airmass should support the development of moderate to potentially
strong instability along/east of the surface low and dryline.
Another source of uncertainty is the lack of obvious large-scale
ascent to foster convective initiation, as weak upper ridging should
be located over the warm sector. Still, storms forming over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies will probably spread
eastward through the day, and should eventually encounter a more
unstable airmass. Weak low-level upslope flow in central/eastern CO
may also serve as a forcing mechanism for convective initiation.
Other storms may form along the dryline/lee trough. Although
low/mid-level winds should remain generally weak through the day,
increasing high-level flow may support some venting at anvil level,
and semi-organized clusters capable of producing both isolated large
hail and damaging winds appear possible as they move generally
eastward through the early evening. A southerly low-level jet is
forecast to strengthen Saturday evening across southern KS into
northern OK, and this feature may support a continued isolated
severe threat with any storms that can form/persist in the warm
advection regime.
..Gleason.. 05/13/2021
Read more
Thu, 13 May 2021 07:31:56 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu May 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in fairly good agreement that a closed
upper low will move slowly eastward from CA across the Southwest
from Day 4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday. Any appreciable severe threat
on these days will probably remain confined to parts of the
southern/central Plains where sufficient low-level moisture to
support surface-based storms should reside. But, the fairly weak
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear forecast across this
region may tend to limit the overall severe threat to some extent on
both Sunday and Monday.
The stronger mid-level flow associated with the upper low will
probably begin to overspread the southern High Plains into TX/OK
from late Monday into Day 6/Tuesday as the upper low continues to
slowly eject eastward. Latest guidance indicates that perhaps a
somewhat greater threat for organized severe storms may occur on
Tuesday across parts of TX, as stronger deep-layer shear overlaps
with greater boundary-layer instability and increasing potential for
surface-based storms. If current model trends continue regarding the
timing and evolution of the upper low, then a 15% severe area may
need to be included for some parts of TX in a later outlook update.
By Day 7/Wednesday and continuing through the end of the forecast
period, predictability in the synoptic-scale pattern across the
CONUS quickly decreases.
Read more
Thu, 13 May 2021 09:04:10 +0000
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