| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.05.21 15:30z 615 Lines 25232 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 801_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210518/1530Z 801@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Tue, 18 May 2021 03:38:02 +0000
Tue, 18 May 2021 03:38:02 +0000
general
1
WW 186 SEVERE TSTM TX 180100Z - 180600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
800 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North-central Texas
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 800 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Cluster with embedded supercells should spread east from
the Big Country and western north Texas into north-central Texas
through about midnight. Greatest wind threat should be closer to
central Texas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of
Brownwood TX to 20 miles east of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW
183...WW 184...WW 185...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Grams
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:51:03 +0000
WW 185 TORNADO TX 180035Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West-central Texas
* Effective this Monday evening from 735 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Intense supercells within a broader cluster should spread
southeast across a portion of the Big Country and Concho Valley
region through late evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles west of San Angelo TX to 95
miles east northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW
183...WW 184...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 31020.
...Grams
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:51:04 +0000
WW 184 SEVERE TSTM TX 172340Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Texas
* Effective this Monday evening from 640 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter
possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A lone supercell may remain nearly stationary along a
boundary across a portion of south Texas. While the spatial extent
of the severe threat may be rather isolated, this supercell may
become intense before weakening later this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest
of Cotulla TX to 55 miles south of Cotulla TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29010.
...Grams
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:33:03 +0000
WW 183 TORNADO TX 172145Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Discrete supercells developing along a remnant boundary
will pose a primary risk of very large hail through mid-evening. A
broader MCS will likely develop during the evening, increasing the
risk for damaging winds near to after sunset.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 80 miles northwest of Abilene TX to
60 miles north northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.
...Grams
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:50:03 +0000
WW 182 TORNADO NM TX 172000Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far Eastern New Mexico
West/Southwest Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
SUMMARY...Intense supercells are expected to develop by late
afternoon within an environment characterized by strong instability
and moderate-strength winds through a deep layer. This development
is initially expected along the New Mexico/Texas border, and
southward into the Trans Pecos/Rio Grande vicinity on a more
isolated basis. Very large hail should be the most common hazard,
but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, particularly near a
residual boundary that influences the New Mexico/Texas border
vicinity of the south Texas Plains. Damaging wind potential may also
increase by around mid-evening as storms congeal/organize.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Cannon Afb
NM to 60 miles east of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 181...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24020.
...Guyer
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:49:04 +0000
WW 181 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 171940Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM MDT Mon May 17 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Northeast New Mexico
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to increase initially
near/just east of the mountains across northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado, with other development possible later this
afternoon near a boundary extending into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. A combination of multicells and some supercells will be
capable of large hail and possibly a tornado. Damaging wind
potential may also increase by early evening, especially into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles where the severe risk will persist much of
the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 135
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of
Trinidad CO to 70 miles southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24015.
...Guyer
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:31:04 +0000
WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-077-093-133-143-193-221-237-333-337-363-367-425-429-485-
497-503-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHERCLAY COMANCHE
EASTLAND ERATHHAMILTON
HOODJACK MILLS
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
SOMERVELLSTEPHENSWICHITA
WISEYOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:51:03 +0000
WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-095-307-327-399-413-451-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHANCOKE
COLEMANCONCHOMCCULLOCH
MENARDRUNNELS SCHLEICHER
TOM GREEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:51:04 +0000
WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 184
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
..MOORE..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC127-163-283-323-479-507-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DIMMITFRIO LA SALLE
MAVERICK WEBB ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:33:03 +0000
WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
..DEAN..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC023-075-101-151-155-197-207-253-269-275-353-417-433-441-447-
487-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYLORCHILDRESSCOTTLE
FISHERFOARDHARDEMAN
HASKELLJONESKING
KNOXNOLANSHACKELFORD
STONEWALLTAYLORTHROCKMORTON
WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:50:04 +0000
WW 0182 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S INK TO
40 ENE BGS TO 25 NW AMA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
..DEAN..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB...SJT...AMA...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC045-103-105-107-125-135-153-169-173-191-227-235-263-329-335-
345-371-383-415-431-437-443-461-465-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOECRANECROCKETT
CROSBYDICKENS ECTOR
FLOYD GARZAGLASSCOCK
HALLHOWARDIRION
KENTMIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEYPECOSREAGAN
SCURRYSTERLINGSWISHER
TERRELLUPTONVAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:49:04 +0000
WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AMA TO
20 NW BGD TO 30 NE DHT TO 25 WSW EHA TO 40 WNW SPD TO 30 SW LHX
TO 30 E COS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
..MOORE..05/18/21
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-089-099-180340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACABENT CROWLEY
OTERO PROWERS
OKC139-180340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-065-087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:31:04 +0000
MD 0665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...Southwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 180335Z - 180500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Redevelopment of severe thunderstorms is possible later
tonight. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 04Z.
DISCUSSION...As a low-level jet becomes focused into southwest TX
late tonight, redevelopment of strong thunderstorms is expected. The
renewed convection will likely be somewhat elevated, but very
favorable buoyancy and shear will favor a threat of very large hail
with initial development, with some upscale growth potentially
leading to a greater damaging wind risk late tonight. A tornado
cannot be ruled with any supercell that can become surface based,
though any such threat is highly conditional. A severe thunderstorm
watch will be issued prior to 04Z to cover the overnight severe
threat.
..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON29660332 31150305 31590288 32130278 33010216 32710125
31770067 31270054 30960047 30390058 30120089 29850115
29810157 29600294 29660332
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 03:36:03 +0000
MD 0664 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 185... FOR NORTH TX INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...North TX into the TX Big Country
Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...
Valid 180323Z - 180500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will persist into late
tonight with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster, especially for the
southern portion of the cluster into the TX Big Country.
DISCUSSION...At 0315Z, a loosely organized MCS is ongoing from
north-central TX into the TX Big Country. The northern portion of
the MCS is struggling to maintain intensity, as it moves into an
environment characterized by increasing MLCINH. However, some threat
for strong wind gusts, and perhaps some hail with the stronger
cores, will persist for at least a couple more hours in that region.
Further south into the TX Big Country, where MLCINH is somewhat
weaker and favorable buoyancy/shear remains in place, a greater
severe threat will likely persist for a few hours this evening. The
primary threat in this region will likely be damaging wind given the
increasingly linear structure and expansive outflow, though some
hail threat will persist with the stronger cores, especially toward
the southwest edge of the cluster. Since the threat will persist
past the 04Z expiration time of WW 185, a new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be issued for the TX Big Country within the hour.
..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON31920056 32769940 33679872 34019877 34029805 33909769
33279752 32349763 31919782 31559845 31479914 31379987
31580050 31820075 31920056
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 03:24:03 +0000
MD 0663 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 182...183... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
Plains
Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...183...
Valid 180244Z - 180415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182, 183 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues with ongoing convection,
though a gradual decreasing trend is expected through 04Z. Some
redevelopment is possible later tonight.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, pockets of strong convection are ongoing
across southern portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
Plains, though a general decreasing trend has been noted over the
past hour. Increasing MLCINH should result in a continued gradual
weakening trend with time, though some instances of large hail and
strong wind gusts will continue to be possible with the remaining
convection, given the still-favorable buoyancy and midlevel lapse
rates.
Later tonight, redevelopment of strong convection may impact at
least southern portions of the MCD area, as a low-level jet becomes
focused into southwest TX. The late-night activity may pose a
hail/wind risk, but any such threat would likely not develop until
closer to 06Z or later.
..Dean.. 05/18/2021
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON32810178 34240191 35050169 35240057 35060021 34239986
33429985 32910017 32580060 32470082 32430132 32520175
32810178
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:45:03 +0000
MD 0662 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181... FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...
Valid 180228Z - 180430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail potential will continue across
the TX and OK Panhandles for the next 1-2 hours, but a gradual
weakening trend is expected across WW 181.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to propagate east/northeast
across southeast CO into southwest KS and across the OK/TX
Panhandles. This line has produced a handful of measured severe wind
gusts in the past hour, and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends
show a few stronger updrafts capable of severe hail in the near
term. However, composite reflectivity and lightning trends over the
past hour have shown a gradual weakening of the line as it moves
across southeast CO where deep-layer shear and MLCAPE are
diminishing. While sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail remain
possible in the near term, this weakening trend should continue.
Further to the south across the OK/TX Panhandles, instability and
deep-layer shear remain favorable for maintaining the evolving QLCS
for the next 1-2 hours. Increasing inhibition and waning instability
will likely lead to a gradual weakening trend as the line approaches
western OK, but severe wind and a few instances of severe hail
remain likely in the near term. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but a downstream watch is currently not anticipated.
..Moore.. 05/18/2021
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON37710400 38330403 38730305 38550185 37910098 36899986
36179962 35359964 34899988 34730035 34770103 35150160
36340241 37070309 37710400
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 02:29:02 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across portions of the
southern Plains. The potential for very large hail, a few tornadoes,
and damaging winds will be focused across a broad part of
west/northwest Texas.
...Southern Plains...
Numerous severe thunderstorms have developed across the southern
Plains from northeast NM-TX Panhandle-TX South Plains-middle Rio
Grande Valley. 00z sounding from EPZ sampled a portion of the
mid-level speed max that is translating across northern Mexico into
west TX with 50kt observed near 6km. This stronger flow aloft will
overspread the expanding complex of storms over northwest TX over
the next few hours and continued upscale growth is anticipated
through storm mergers. Latest radar data suggests an evolving MCS is
beginning to take shape along a corridor from Big
Spring-Sweetwater-Monday. This activity should mature over the next
several hours then surge east along the I-20 corridor, possibly
spreading into the western portions of the Metroplex late this
evening. Damaging wind threat may increase along the leading edge of
this complex, especially if it matures into a bow-type structure.
Another possible MCS may emerge over the TX Panhandle as numerous
thunderstorms begin to conglomerate. This activity will begin to
propagate toward western OK if a sufficient cold pool materializes
as expected.
...Southeast LA...
Slow-moving MCS has progressed across much of southwestern LA. 00z
sounding from LIX exhibits modest shear through 6km along with high
PW-air mass. This activity should propagate across southeastern LA
over the next several hours and a tornado or two can not be ruled
out with embedded weak circulations. For these reasons will maintain
some tornado threat with this MCS.
..Darrow.. 05/18/2021
Read more
Tue, 18 May 2021 00:53:23 +0000
+--------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ---------------------------+
< Your love life will be... interesting. >
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
