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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.05.21 16:36z 217 Lines 8145 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 866_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210519/1631Z 866@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 19 May 2021 03:41:02 +0000
Wed, 19 May 2021 03:41:02 +0000
general
1
WW 190 TORNADO TX CW 190030Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast and south Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 730 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Slow-moving QLCS with embedded supercell structures should
evolve east-northeast towards the Upper to Middle Texas Coast
tonight. Brief tornadoes and damaging winds will be the primary
severe hazards, with large hail also possible with any trailing
cells to the southwest.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Houston
TX to 70 miles west of Beeville TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 25025.
...Grams
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 02:44:03 +0000
WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE COT
TO 45 NW LBX TO 20 NE CLL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
..DEAN..05/19/21
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 190
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC025-039-071-157-167-175-185-201-239-291-297-311-321-339-391-
407-469-471-473-481-190340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEEBRAZORIACHAMBERS
FORT BENDGALVESTONGOLIAD
GRIMESHARRISJACKSON
LIBERTYLIVE OAKMCMULLEN
MATAGORDAMONTGOMERY REFUGIO
SAN JACINTO VICTORIAWALKER
WALLERWHARTON
GMZ330-335-190340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MATAGORDA BAY
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 02:44:03 +0000
WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 189
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW TYR TO
40 NNW GGG TO 40 WSW TXK TO 5 ENE TXK TO 20 WNW ELD.
WW 189 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
..MOORE..05/19/21
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 189
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC073-091-190200-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAFAYETTEMILLER
TXC067-073-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-423-459-190200-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASSCHEROKEEGREGG
HARRISON MARIONMORRIS
NACOGDOCHES PANOLARUSK
SMITH UPSHUR
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 01:16:03 +0000
WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E COT TO
40 NW NIR TO 45 N NIR TO 55 SE AUS TO 35 SW CLL TO 35 NNE CLL TO
45 SSE CRS TO 20 ENE CRS.
..DEAN..05/19/21
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-041-051-123-149-161-225-255-285-289-313-455-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BRAZOSBURLESON
DEWITTFAYETTE FREESTONE
HOUSTONKARNESLAVACA
LEONMADISON TRINITY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 01:24:04 +0000
MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
Areas affected...Far southeast TX into southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190339Z - 190515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...While an upstream MCS over southeast TX is expected to
gradually weaken as it approaches southwest LA, the threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts may persist into the early morning
hours. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...At 0330Z, an MCS is moving across southeast TX. As the
MCS moves eastward into southwest LA, it will encounter a less
unstable and more strongly capped (for surface-based parcels)
environment, with the more moist/unstable airmass expected to remain
near the immediate coast and offshore, to the south of a nearly
stationary surface boundary. As a result, a gradual weakening trend
is expected with time. While isolated damaging wind gusts may remain
possible into the early morning hours, the threat is expected to
become increasingly marginal, so additional watch issuance is
unlikely.
..Dean/Grams.. 05/19/2021
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON30939455 31169339 31199239 30719171 30029138 29419158
29419236 29379335 29369397 29909431 30939455
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 03:40:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, including the risk for damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes, remain a concern across southeast Texas into
the Upper Texas Coast tonight. Isolated severe storms are also
possible across the Texas Panhandle and from the ArkLaTex into
northern Arkansas.
...01Z Update...
...Southeast TX...Middle/Upper TX Coast...
Large cluster of thunderstorms and embedded supercells continues
from central TX to the middle TX Coast. Recent radar imagery has
shown a bit more propagation eastward over the past hour or so.
Downstream VAD wind profile at HGX has also shown a gradual
strengthening around 1 km, with 0-1 km bulk shear now over 25 kt and
0-1 km storm-relative helicity over 275 m2/s2. As such, very moist
inflow will be available to this cluster with some further
organization also anticipated. Resulting downstream threat for
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes is high enough to expand the
Slight Risk eastward to the southern TX/LA border.
...North-Central AR...
Ongoing convective line continues to weaken but modest instability
and moderate low-level flow will still support damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado.
...TX Panhandle...
Thunderstorms continue to propagate eastward across the central TX
Panhandle. Occasional strong gusts are possible as well as isolated
instances of hail. However, the overall diminishing trend observed
over the past hour is expected to continue, with storm dissipation
likely as the line reaches far western OK.
..Mosier.. 05/19/2021
Read more
Wed, 19 May 2021 00:54:28 +0000
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