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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:16z 132 Lines 7025 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15669_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 01
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MD 0005 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Wed Jan 02 2019
Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas...southwest into
central Oklahoma
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 030519Z - 031115Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain (0.05-0.10 in/3 hr accumulation rates)
and occasional sleet continues across the area, and is expected to
continue into the morning hours, before transitioning to snow.
DISCUSSION...Light to occasionally moderate precipitation, induced
by ascent provided by an approaching 500 mb cut-off low, has been
ongoing for the last several hours, with occasional sleet and at
least a light glazing of ice from freezing rain observed. Given
the approach of the aforementioned upper-level low, large-scale
ascent will continue to overspread the area, supporting more light
to moderate precipitation into the early morning hours.
Temperatures remain below freezing at the surface, though a slight
warm up has been observed within the last hour (i.e 1-2F rise
in/around the OKC metro). Hydrometeor melting continues in the
850-700 mb layer, where temperatures remain near/above freezing. As
such, freezing rain mixed with some sleet will likely remain
the primary precipitation type through the early morning hours,
as supported by the latest RAP point forecast soundings and high
resolution ensemble guidance. This will especially be the case
along an axis from FDR, to OUN and SRE, where a near-continuous
band of light to moderate precipitation has become established and
is translating along this axis.
As sub-freezing temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer advect eastward
over the area with the approaching upper-level low, deep-tropospheric
vertical profiles will become more supportive of snow reaching the
surface at or shortly before sunrise.
..Squitieri.. 01/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31010130 31790087 33270047 34050008 34679913 35629822
35999731 36179657 35809598 35239546 34649525 34259565 33579741
32179932 31010130
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109
PM CST Wed Jan 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible within a larger
area of general precipitation from east Texas toward the lower
Mississippi Valley, but severe weather is unlikely.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will deepen as it travels
rapidly eastward across the southern Plains during the day and to the
MS river by Friday morning. Large-scale lift associated with this
feature will result in widespread precipitation across the region,
but instability for thunderstorms will be minimal due to cool
surface temperatures. Although a surface low will develop across
LA and MS late Thursday, instability will remain elevated and weak
even ahead of the low. As a result, severe weather is not expected.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/03/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CST Thu Jan 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...SUMMARY... A low-probability threat for an isolated damaging
wind gusts and/or brief tornado exists across coastal North Carolina
Friday evening through early Saturday morning.
...Synopsis... Mid/upper portion of a mature mid-latitude cyclone
will likely be centered near the AR/LA/MS border intersection at the
beginning of the period, with its surface low displaced slightly
northeastward (near the TN/MS border). This entire system will
gradually translate northeastward throughout the period, moving
through the TN Valley by Friday evening and reaching the northern
Mid-Atlantic by early Saturday morning.
...Southeast... Cold front associated with the surface low
mentioned in the synopsis will move eastward across the central
and eastern portions of region on Friday, encountering a modestly
moist air mass as it does. However, deep southwesterly flow aloft
will promote widespread cloudiness and precipitation ahead of the
front, limiting heating while also keeping mid-level temperatures
warm. Some isolated lightning strikes are possible but much of the
convection across the region will be too shallow and/or short-lived
to support a severe thunderstorm threat.
...Mid-Atlantic... Surface low mentioned in the synopsis
will continue to gradually occlude as it moves northeastward,
with secondary cyclogenesis anticipated over the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic resulting in a new, stronger surface low just off the NJ
coast by 12Z Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will remain in
place over the region throughout the entire period but the developing
surface low will promote more southerly/southeasterly surface winds
across the coastal Carolinas Friday evening/night. As a result,
hodographs depict strong low-level veering with height in the lowest
1 km with more than sufficient helicity to support updraft rotation.
However, in contrast to the favorable kinematics, thermodynamic
profiles are much less favorable. Warm mid-level temperatures
and muted heating will temper overall instability, likely keeping
updrafts transient and/or shallow. The only exception is over the
immediate coastal portions of NC, where enough low-level moisture
may exist to support surface-based storms. As such, there is a
low-probability threat for an isolated damaging wind gusts and/or
brief tornado.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Mosier.. 01/03/2019
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legislature is in session.
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