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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.03.19 07:05z 74 Lines 3921 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19804_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 08 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<F6IQF<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190308/0701Z 19804@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CST Thu Mar 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK...WESTERN AR...AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail,
perhaps very large, are possible across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northeast Texas into the Ozarks vicinity tonight into early
Saturday morning. A tornado is possible mainly over southeastern
Oklahoma, far west-central Arkansas, and into parts of northeast
Texas overnight.
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will rapidly move from
southern CA/eastern Pacific into the Four Corners by dusk and acquire
a negative tilt as it progresses eastward into western KS/OK/TX
by the end of the period. An intense mid-level jet (90kt) will
move from the southern High Plains around midnight into OK/north
TX by daybreak Saturday. Impressive dynamic forcing for ascent
(implied by 210m/12hr 500mb height falls) will result in surface
cyclogenesis over the central High Plains late in the day with a
low developing eastward and deepening as it moves into central KS.
In the low levels, a Pacific front will sweep eastward across the
southern Plains overnight reaching the OK/north TX I-35 corridor
by early morning. A frontal zone over the Ark-La-Tex will develop
northward as a warm front before stalling near the I-40 corridor
in OK/AR.
...North-central TX into OK/AR and the Ozark Plateau... Southerly
low-level flow will contribute to moistening of the boundary layer
across east TX into southeast OK/AR during the day before low-level
mass fields respond towards the evening coincident with cyclogenesis
and moisture advancing into OK after dark. Lower 60s degrees
F dewpoints are forecast to reach the I-40 corridor in eastern
OK and serve as the northern extent of surface-based instability.
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over central
TX northward into the eastern half of OK near/after midnight.
700-500mb lapse rates around 8 degrees C/km and strong shear in
the 850-300mb layer are suggestive of large hail potential with
the stronger updrafts. Elevated thunderstorms, primarily capable
of severe hail, are possible north of the warm front from parts of
northeast OK eastward into the Ozarks. Forecast soundings show
a moist boundary layer south of the warm front where adequate
enlargement of hodographs may yield some low-level storm-scale
rotation (supercellular or QLCS). It seems there is a tendency for
linear structures to evolve with time both across eastern OK into
western AR. Greater uncertainty exists farther south in TX where
it seems plausible a cluster of storms will evolve from initially
isolated storms. It is possible a transition to upscale growth
could occur across north-central TX with the threat mainly of
hail/wind late.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/08/2019
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You're not my type. For that matter, you're not even my species!!!
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