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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.05.21 20:37z 90 Lines 4065 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1425_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-MAY.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210527/2030Z 1425@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 27 May 2021 13:04:01 +0000
Thu, 27 May 2021 13:04:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu May 27 13:04:01 UTC 2021.
Thu, 27 May 2021 13:03:18 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 27 13:04:01 UTC 2021.
Thu, 27 May 2021 13:03:12 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Significant damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are
possible.
...Southern Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley...
Most guidance has poorly simulated overnight convection along with
the stabilizing impacts of ongoing and decayed convection in parts
of the open warm sector. Confidence is greatest in a strongly
unstable air mass with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg developing from
west TX into most of OK this afternoon where upper 60s to low 70s
surface dew points persist beneath the eastern extent of the
elevated mixed-layer. Lesser confidence exists in the amplitude of
destabilization with northeast extent into the Mid-MS Valley given a
combination of lesser boundary-layer moisture, weaker mid-level
lapse rates, and/or residual cloud cover.
Guidance that has more closely simulated the elevated convection in
the northwest OK/south-central KS vicinity generally suggest
increasing coverage this morning as low-level warm/moist advection
persists in the wake of earlier decayed convection. This activity
should eventually impinge on richer boundary-layer moisture towards
north-central/northeast OK, yielding a potential severe threat as
early as midday. One or more clusters with embedded supercells
should develop east towards the Ozarks and south towards the Red
River through the afternoon. Additional supercells should form along
the dryline by mid to late afternoon in the afternoon from the TX
Trans-Pecos north to the intersection with the cold front/leading
outflow near the southeast TX Panhandle into western OK. Large hail
(some very large) will be most pronounced with supercells, while
amalgamating cold pools should support a significant severe wind
threat by late afternoon continuing into the evening. A few
tornadoes are also possible particularly in interactions with
storm-scale outflows owing to relatively modest low-level shear.
Timing of transition to severe, as well as how far south convection
will develop prior to peak surface heating, lowers confidence in
attempting to identify a mesoscale corridor of greater hazard
probabilities with this outlook cycle.
Farther northeast across the Lower MO to Mid-MS Valley, multiple
MCVs are evident with leading convection in northeast MO rather
poorly simulated by guidance. Confidence is fairly low that the
degree of destabilization indicated by guidance will truly be
achieved downstream across the Mid-MS Valley, as well as over the
Lower MO Valley where an attempt at air mass recovery may occur
ahead of the impinging cold front. Nevertheless, favorable
deep-layer shear and ascent downstream of the northern Great Plains
shortwave trough will support a conditional severe threat through
this evening.
..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2021
Read more
Thu, 27 May 2021 12:53:09 +0000
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