| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 31.05.21 16:53z 329 Lines 12650 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1682_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-MAY.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210531/1631Z 1682@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 31 May 2021 03:46:02 +0000
Mon, 31 May 2021 03:46:02 +0000
general
1
WW 228 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 310215Z - 310700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
915 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 915 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue to progress eastward
across the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles toward other parts of
western Oklahoma. Isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some
hail may occur before storms weaken into the overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east of Liberal
KS to 170 miles south southeast of Liberal KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...WW 227...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:48:02 +0000
WW 227 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 302300Z - 310600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
West/Southwest Texas
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 600 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms including supercells will persist
generally eastward across southeast New Mexico into parts of west
Texas this evening. Large hail and possibly some tornado risk will
exist with some potential for an increasing risk of severe-caliber
wind gusts this evening as storms merge into one or more
semi-organized MCS.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast
of Plainview TX to 50 miles west of Midland TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28020.
...Guyer
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:48:03 +0000
WW 226 TORNADO OK TX 302135Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Oklahoma Panhandle
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially, a supercell across far southeast Colorado may
continue to move southeastward into the western Oklahoma Panhandle
while additional storms develop generally eastward out of northeast
New Mexico. Some supercells capable of large hail can be expected,
and a tornado threat will also exist, particularly with storms
interacting with a west/northwest-east/southeast-oriented outflow
boundary. With time, eventual storm mergers should lead to upscale
quasi-linear growth/organization this evening along with an
increasing damaging wind risk and some continued tornado potential
with embedded circulations.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX
to 40 miles east northeast of Borger TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29015.
...Guyer
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:46:03 +0000
WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HART..05/31/21
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-039-043-045-055-057-129-153-310340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERBECKHAM CUSTER
DEWEY ELLISGREER
HARMONROGER MILLSWOODWARD
TXC087-211-295-483-310340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLINGSWORTHHEMPHILLLIPSCOMB
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:48:03 +0000
WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNM
TO 50 SSE CVS TO 30 WNW PVW TO 45 SW AMA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
..HART..05/31/21
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-310340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDYLEA
TXC003-033-045-069-075-079-101-107-115-125-135-153-165-169-189-
191-219-227-263-269-279-301-303-305-317-329-335-345-415-433-437-
445-495-501-310340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWSBORDENBRISCOE
CASTROCHILDRESSCOCHRAN
COTTLECROSBYDAWSON
DICKENSECTORFLOYD
GAINESGARZAHALE
HALLHOCKLEY HOWARD
KENTKING LAMB
LOVINGLUBBOCK LYNN
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:48:04 +0000
WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AMA TO
35 WNW AMA TO 20 S GUY TO 20 W LBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
..HART..05/31/21
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 226
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-310340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-065-129-179-195-233-341-357-375-381-393-310340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONGCARSONDONLEY
GRAYHANSFORDHUTCHINSON
MOORE OCHILTREEPOTTER
RANDALLROBERTS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 02:46:03 +0000
WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
PORTIONS OF WW 225 MAY REQUIRE EXTENSION IN TIME FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE WW 225
WILL EXPIRE AT 310000Z.
..HART..05/30/21
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-023-025-027-055-071-089-101-310000-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACABENT COSTILLA
CROWLEYCUSTERHUERFANO
LAS ANIMASOTEROPUEBLO
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-027-033-037-041-047-049-055-057-059-
310000-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVESCOLFAXCURRY
DE BACAGUADALUPEHARDING
LINCOLNMORA QUAY
ROOSEVELTSAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TAOSTORRANCEUNION
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 00:00:07 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 31 03:46:07 UTC 2021.
Mon, 31 May 2021 03:45:10 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this
evening into the overnight hours across parts of the southern
Rockies into the adjacent southern Great Plains.
...01Z Outlook Update...
...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
A short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing now
centered over the lower Colorado Valley/northern Baja vicinity
continues to slowly progress into and through large-scale downstream
ridging across the southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains.
This has contributed to a gradual increase in thunderstorm
development, east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa area
and southwestward toward the lee of the Sacramento Mountains,
including a few supercells which remain ongoing.However, model
output continues to generally indicate further consolidation and
upscale convective growth is possible this evening into tonight
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the Texas South
Plains.
NAM has generally been most aggressive with strengthening of wind
fields with an evolving MCV across the Panhandle vicinity into
western Oklahoma overnight (including a 50-70 kt speed maximum in
the 850-700 mb layer).Given the relatively modest lapse rates and
CAPE currently present across this regime, this might be too strong.
However, there appears at least some potential for strengthening
surface gusts to accompany an evolving convective cluster overnight.
Otherwise, it does appear that a 40+ kt 500 mb speed maximum now
crossing southern Baja will continue propagating northeastward
tonight, and could approach southwestern Texas toward daybreak.As
it does, associated forcing could support renewed thunderstorm
development to the east of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains area,
where the environment near a stalling outflow boundary may remain
favorable for supercell development.
...Upper Midwest...
Although there has been some recent intensification of convection
within a narrow corridor of pre-frontal boundary layer heating
(where mixed-layer CAPE may be near 500 J/kg) across northeastern
Minnesota, 35 kt westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow will tend to
advect this activity into a cooler/more stable environment near the
Lake Superior shoreline over the next couple of hours.This
momentum is largely focused aloft, with wind fields generally on the
order of 10-20 kt in the lowest few kilometers.Given this
weakness, potential for strong surface gusts with convection is not
expected to substantively increase.
..Kerr.. 05/31/2021
Read more
Mon, 31 May 2021 01:08:56 +0000
+--------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ---------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
