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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.03.19 07:04z 185 Lines 10365 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19841_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190309/0700Z 19841@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SOPORTE TECNICO - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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MD 0162 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Areas affected...central South Dakota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 090543Z - 091045Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates of around 1 inch/hr are possible with
an arcing band of precipitation that will progress northeastward
through 09Z.
DISCUSSION...Rapid low-level cyclogenesis is underway across
the central High Plains, with strong sfc-700 mb southerly flow
prevailing across much of the Central/Northern Plains in advance of
an approaching/deepening upper-level trough. Broad low to mid-level
cyclonic flow is aiding the advection of relatively moisture rich
air, from the surface to about 500 mb, across the discussion area
(noted in both the UNR 00Z sounding and multiple 04Z RAP forecast
soundings). RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis data all also
suggest northward 925-700 mb WAA advection and at least modest 700
mb frontogenesis continues across the region, providing adequate
deep-layer ascent within the dendritic (-12 to -17C) layer for
efficient dendrite production, perhaps supporting snowfall rates
around 1 inch/hr for the next 5 hours or so.
A focused band of heavy snow, now crossing the NE/SD border, will
likely continue producing around 1 inch/hr rates. The 00Z HREF, and
03Z HRRR also depict the aforementioned band to maintain intensity
as it progresses from southwest to north-central SD through 09-10Z.
..Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 42960315 43910286 44930221 45690136 45980014 45659898
45019859 44269857 43509944 42810062 42960315
MD 0161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Areas affected...West-central Texas...North-central Texas...Southern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 090539Z - 090815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible over the next few hours from west-central Texas and
central Texas northward into southern Oklahoma. The severe threat
should gradually increase tonight along this corridor where weather
watch issuance will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough
approaching the southern Rockies with a band of mid-level moisture
extending northeastward across much of Texas. At the surface,
a synoptic-scale low is analyzed in southeast Colorado with a
detached moist sector located across the southeastern two-thirds
of Texas. A pocket of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP
over north-central Texas where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1500 to
2000 J/Kg range. A line of convection has recently developed along
the western edge of the stronger instability to the northeast of
San Angelo. This line will be supported by large-scale ascent ahead
of the approaching upper-level trough and strong deep-layer shear,
moving eastward into increasing instability over the next few hours.
In addition, the partial 0600Z sounding from Fort Worth shows a
very steep lapse rate in the mid-levels of 9.0 C/Km. This will
aid upscale growth, enabling thunderstorms to gradually organize
and obtain a severe threat with large hail possible. A potential
for strong wind gusts may also develop later tonight as convection
moves into the instability max across north-central Texas.
..Broyles/Grams.. 03/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32059760 33929704 34749705 34989798 35039873 34839918
34399965 33160023 31890092 31370108 31040101 30820049 30859954
31129830 32059760
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133
PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South
today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from
the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into
parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama.
...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the
lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great
Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate
east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening.
In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from
central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great
Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance
northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite
dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into
eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before
sweeping east across the OH Valley late.
...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex
forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately
describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes
across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today.
At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to
severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the
larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western
AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether
all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent
intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of
this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex
during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two
are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.
Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will
spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface
dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley
to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance
correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north
(MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg
farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very
large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the
850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area.
It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur
during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot.
If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve
into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility
for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from
the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the
trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area.
As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast
during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable
primarily of damaging winds may occur.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/09/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
across parts of the Southeast to the Carolinas on Sunday. The
overall severe threat appears marginal at this time.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast
Sunday morning will move northeastward into eastern Canada through
the period. An occluding surface low will also develop northeastward
over eastern ON into QC by Sunday evening. A trailing front extending
from this low will likely make little southward progress across
much of the Southeast, although it should move eastward off the
NC/SC coast Sunday night.
...Deep South to the Carolinas... Other than weak low-level
convergence along the front, little in the way of other obvious
large-scale forcing mechanisms are evident to support convection
across much of the Deep South on Sunday. Mid-level heights are
forecast to either rise slightly or remain neutral across this
region. Still, most guidance shows isolated thunderstorms forming
along the front by Sunday afternoon across southern AL into
central/eastern GA and SC. The stronger mid-level southwesterly
flow is forecast to remain generally displaced to the north of this
region, but some overlap of effective bulk shear around 30-40 kt
coupled with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg through peak heating should
support an isolated severe threat. Occasional wind damage should be
the primary risk with small clusters forming along or just ahead of
the front. A slightly better potential severe risk may exist across
eastern NC and vicinity as mid-level flow should tend to be a little
stronger across this region compared to locations farther south.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 03/09/2019
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They have been at a great feast of languages, and stolen the scraps.
-- William Shakespeare, "Love's Labour's Lost"
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