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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.06.21 16:37z 150 Lines 6495 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2085_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210606/1630Z 2085@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Sun, 06 Jun 2021 03:24:02 +0000
Sun, 06 Jun 2021 03:24:02 +0000
general
1
WW 238 SEVERE TSTM ND 060320Z - 060900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest into central North Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 920 PM
until 300 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken band of high-based thunderstorms may intensify
some in the next few hours while spreading east-northeastward from
southwest into central North Dakota.Damaging winds will be the
main threat, though isolated large hail may occur with the strongest
storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Dickinson ND to 30 miles south southeast of Devils Lake ND. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Thompson
Read more
Sun, 06 Jun 2021 03:20:02 +0000
WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sun, 06 Jun 2021 03:20:04 +0000
MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021
Areas affected...Portions of North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060215Z - 060415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this evening across North Dakota. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...While convection has generally struggled over the past
several hours across portions of Montana, very steep low-level lapse
rates have allowed for occasional strong wind gusts even from
relatively unorganized thunderstorms (e.g., most notably a recent
measured 70 mph wind gust in Prairie County Montana). Forecast
guidance continues to suggest this area of convection will become
better organized as it overspreads greater buoyancy across North
Dakota (e.g., 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the next few hours.
Additionally, thunderstorm coverage/intensity should also increase
as a southerly low-level jet develops through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from any multicell
cluster or bowing segment, as deeply-mixed boundary layers (per 00Z
regional RAOBs) promote efficient thunderstorm downdrafts. Large
hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts or with any
storms that can remain semi-discrete given the 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear.
While the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains unclear,
owing to uncertainty regarding overall coverage of severe winds,
trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance
over the next few hours.
..Elliott/Thompson.. 06/06/2021
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON47290338 48020181 48530015 48689912 48379844 47249831
46679980 46220146 45870324 45890394 46420408 47290338
Read more
Sun, 06 Jun 2021 02:16:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms are possible across parts of northern
Maine the next few hours. Additional isolated strong to severe
storms are possible into the early overnight hours across parts of
North Dakota. Locally strong to damaging gusts will be the main
concern with this activity.
...Northern Maine...
A line of convection is currently tracking southeastward across
Aroostook County where surface dewpoints in the low 60s are aiding
in weak instability. The 00z CAR RAOB, just downstream from ongoing
convection, indicated around 40-45 kt effective shear amid roughly
1200 J/kg MLCAPE. While boundary layer inhibition will slowly
increase with loss of daytime heating, the thermodynamic/shear
parameter space could support organized storms capable of gusty
winds for a few more hours this evening before the severe threat
rapidly diminishes. As such, a small Marginal/5% wind risk will be
maintained across northern Maine for the short-term severe
potential.
...eastern Montana into North Dakota...
Convection has struggled to remain organized/intense early this
evening across parts of eastern MT. Overall dearth of boundary layer
moisture and a deeply mixed boundary layer appears to be the main
limiting factor per 00z regional RAOBs. Nevertheless, instability
does increase with eastward extent across ND. Furthermore, forecast
guidance shows some increase in convective coverage/intensity as
thunderstorm clusters near the cold front encounter an increasing
southerly low level jet later this evening into the early overnight
hours. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may accompany this
activity.
..Leitman.. 06/06/2021
Read more
Sun, 06 Jun 2021 00:43:28 +0000
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