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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.06.21 16:37z 264 Lines 11140 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 572_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210612/1630Z 572@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Sat, 12 Jun 2021 03:40:07 +0000
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 03:40:07 +0000
general
1
WW 261 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 112345Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
southeast Kansas
north central and northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 645 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms developing along a cold front and
southward-advancing outflow boundaries will pose a risk for damaging
wind and hail as they develop through southeast Kansas and north
central through northeast Oklahoma this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north
northwest of Enid OK to 45 miles east southeast of Chanute KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 259...WW 260...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32035.
...Dial
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 03:40:03 +0000
WW 0261 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE P28
TO 10 SSW ICT TO 30 NW BVO TO 5 SW TUL.
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 261
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC035-191-120440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COWLEYSUMNER
OKC037-047-053-071-081-083-103-113-117-119-120440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CREEK GARFIELDGRANT
KAYLINCOLN LOGAN
NOBLE OSAGEPAWNEE
PAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 03:40:03 +0000
WW 0260 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 260
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNU
TO 20 N SGF TO 30 SE TBN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
..MOORE..06/12/21
ATTN...WFO...SGF...LSX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 260
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC021-037-120240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
MOC009-011-043-057-067-077-097-109-119-145-153-209-213-225-229-
120240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTONCHRISTIAN
DADEDOUGLAS GREENE
JASPERLAWRENCEMCDONALD
NEWTONOZARKSTONE
TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 01:33:05 +0000
WW 0259 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SLN
TO 25 SW TOP TO 40 ENE EMP TO 50 SSE OJC TO 5 WSW COU.
WW 259 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120000Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
..MOORE..06/11/21
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 259
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-073-107-111-115-127-207-120000-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSONBUTLER
CHASE COFFEYGREENWOOD
LINNLYON MARION
MORRISWOODSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 00:00:14 +0000
MD 0932 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261... FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Areas affected...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...
Valid 120220Z - 120415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing near Wichita, KS will continue to
gradually grow upscale and move southward into northern Oklahoma.
These storms may pose a severe wind risk as this occurs, though the
timing and spatial coverage of this threat remains somewhat
uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Reflectivity and velocity data from KICT over the past
1-2 hours has shown discrete cells initiating along a surface
trough/cold front and where this feature intersects a residual
outflow boundary from prior convection. As storms develop near the
cold front/outflow intersection, they have displayed a tendency to
become displaced to the cool (north) side of the boundary.
Convective reinforcement of the boundary has resulted in a southward
boundary motion. Despite deep-layer shear vectors oriented along
this boundary (which should favor upscale growth), the development
of an organized MCS has been largely delayed up until the past 30
minutes.
Recent imagery suggests that cold pool amalgamation may be beginning
as a slight southward propagation in a developing convective cluster
is noted. This feature is expected to continue to push to the
south/southeast and remain in an environment with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Although effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots are
noted, the line-normal component may be weak and yield an overall
slow southward progression - driven namely by cold-pool propagation.
Additionally, increasing MLCIN introduces some uncertainty into the
propensity for widespread severe/damaging winds. However, given the
ample instability and strong DCAPE, at least periodic severe winds
will remain possible.
..Moore.. 06/12/2021
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON37629785 37889749 37909676 37619639 37179603 36539589
36039608 35949679 36009792 36269815 37019812 37629785
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 02:21:03 +0000
MD 0931 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 260... FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Areas affected...Southwest Missouri and Northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 260...
Valid 120154Z - 120400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a severe
wind and hail risk for the next 1-2 hours, but the threat is
expected to become more sporadic heading into the overnight hours. A
downstream watch into northwest Arkansas is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced outflow boundary continues to
push southward across southwest MO. Thunderstorms developing along
this boundary have shown a tendency to quickly become displaced to
the north. While this convection has been intense at times and
produced severe/damaging downburst winds, more widespread convection
has recently become confined to a single more persistent cell across
Douglas and Ozark counties. To the west, a severe cluster of storms
that moved out of southeast KS has gradually become displaced behind
the outflow boundary, and GOES IR imagery shows warming cloud tops,
indicative of a weakening trend. The expectation is that this pair
of storms will continue southward into northwest AR into the late
evening hours. The onset of diurnal cooling/stabilization and the
lack of a strong low-level jet in the region should favor a gradual
weakening trend, precluding the need for a downstream watch.
However, these storms will remain capable of severe/damaging winds
in the near term and as they approach the southern extent of WW 260.
..Moore/Dial.. 06/12/2021
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON37299465 37189401 37199275 37109227 36689200 36269225
36009271 36009341 36039409 36219457 36719469 37299465
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 01:55:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms (some of which may be significant)
with damaging winds as the primary hazard, along with large hail,
are expected tonight. The most likely corridor is across eastern
Kansas and adjacent western Missouri through parts of north-central
and northeast Oklahoma.
...Central/southern Plains...
A compact MCS continues to move south across southeast KS/southwest
MO at 01z, with a history of significant severe downburst winds and
large hail. Recent observational trends show isolated thunderstorm
development farther west over south-central KS, where a convective
outflow boundary from the MCS intersects the synoptic cold front.
The environment downstream of the ongoing MCS and development near
KICT remains extremely unstable, characterized by MLCAPE in excess
of 4000 J/kg.Very warm midlevel temperatures farther south (19 deg
C on the KOUN 00z sounding) casts some doubt on the extent of the
severe threat, but with a well-developed cold pool lifted parcels
should overcome convective inhibition at least as far as near the
I-40 corridor.Damaging gusts, some significant, remain the primary
threat tonight, and effective shear of 30-45 kts will support
supercells with potentially significant severe hail. Overall, have
trimmed probabilities based on radar trends over northern portions
of the risk area, and extended Slight Risk probabilities farther
east over northwest AR with this outlook.
...Wisconsin...
Thunderstorms have weakened since 23z over southwest/west-central WI
as SBCIN increases. Although a stronger cell cannot be ruled out
over the next hour or so, the overall risk has diminished this
evening and have removed the Marginal Risk in this area.
..Bunting.. 06/12/2021
Read more
Sat, 12 Jun 2021 01:16:08 +0000
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