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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.03.19 07:03z 99 Lines 5339 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19886_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190310/0700Z 19886@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the Southeast northeastward into the
Carolinas this afternoon.
...Southeast/Carolinas... West to southwest mid-level flow will
be in place across much of the central and eastern United States
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the
Appalachian Mountains and central Gulf Coast States. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the
60s F. Surface heating will result in pockets of instability along
the moist corridor by midday where the models suggest MLCAPE values
will reach 500 to 1000 J/Kg. The models first develop convection in
the central Gulf Coast states northeastward into southwest Georgia
in the early afternoon where the strongest instability and greatest
low-level moisture is forecast. Moderate deep-layer shear along
this part of the moist corridor should support a marginal severe
threat. Have put a 5 percent hail and wind damage probability
contour in this area. Further northeast into the Carolinas,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid
afternoon. Although there is a bit more uncertainty along this part
of the moist corridor, instability and deep-layer shear profiles
should support a marginal wind damage threat with cells that can
develop in the areas that destabilize the most.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152
PM CST Sat Mar 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
mainly Monday evening/night across parts of the southern High
Plains. Marginally severe hail should be the main threat.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging will amplify over much of the central
CONUS on Monday, with an expansive surface high remaining across much
of the central/eastern states through the period. A stalled front
should extend from vicinity of the FL/GA border westward along/near
the Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Monday along this
boundary, but both instability and shear should remain too weak to
support a meaningful severe threat. Farther west, a closed upper low
off the coast of CA will develop slowly east-southeastward to the
Baja Peninsula and lower CO River Valley by the end of the period.
...Southern NM into West TX... Low-level moisture return will occur
in earnest Monday evening and night across much of TX into eastern
NM ahead of the approaching upper low as a southwesterly low-level
jet quickly strengthens across this area. A plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of northern Mexico
should overspread the southern High Plains by Monday evening, and
instability will likely increase across this region late in the
period. Strong mid-level southwesterly winds should also spread
northeastward over NM and west TX, with 50+ kt of effective bulk
shear supporting organized updrafts.
Model guidance continues to exhibit variability with the
northwestward extent and quality of the low-level moisture return
across southern NM and west TX. Still, MUCAPE potentially increasing
to around 1000-1500 J/kg in combination with the strong shear could
encourage elevated supercells mainly Monday evening/night from
parts of southeastern NM into west TX. If this occurs, isolated
large hail would probably be the main threat, although strong/gusty
winds cannot be ruled out where instability becomes maximized.
There appears to be some chance for near-surface-based thunderstorm
development by Monday afternoon across parts of the lower Rio Grande
Valley in southern NM if the low-level moisture return is on the
more aggressive side of the model guidance envelope. Currently,
this potential appears too uncertain to expand the Marginal risk
area any farther westward at this time.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Gleason.. 03/10/2019
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The very ink with which all history is written is merely fluid prejudice.
-- Mark Twain
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