| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 14.06.21 16:39z 278 Lines 11425 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 726_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210614/1630Z 726@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 03:24:02 +0000
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 03:24:02 +0000
general
1
WW 268 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 132105Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM MDT Sun Jun 13 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Nebraska Panhandle
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Initial discrete cells should persist across far southeast
Wyoming, while additional storms form over the northwest Nebraska
Panhandle. This activity should into an east-southeast moving
cluster this evening. Large hail transitioning to predominately
severe wind gusts are the main hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north
northwest of Cheyenne WY to 15 miles north of Alliance NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 264...WW 265...WW
266...WW 267...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Grams
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 01:30:03 +0000
WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CYS
TO 20 S TOR TO 55 NW CDR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
..MOORE..06/14/21
ATTN...WFO...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-140240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNERBOX BUTTECHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFFSIOUX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 01:30:04 +0000
WW 0267 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 267
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S JKL TO
25 SE CRW TO 25 N BKW TO 15 E BKW TO 5 NW SSU TO 20 ENE SSU TO 25
NNW LYH.
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 267
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC005-021-023-027-045-051-071-163-185-530-580-678-140140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHANYBLANDBOTETOURT
BUCHANAN CRAIGDICKENSON
GILES ROCKBRIDGE TAZEWELL
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA COVINGTONLEXINGTON
WVC005-019-025-045-047-055-059-063-081-089-109-140140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE FAYETTE GREENBRIER
LOGAN MCDOWELLMERCER
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 00:18:04 +0000
WW 0266 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 266
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
ATTN...WFO...CTP...BGM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 266
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC013-015-021-023-027-033-035-037-047-061-067-069-079-081-083-
087-093-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-131-140140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAIR BRADFORDCAMBRIA
CAMERONCENTRECLEARFIELD
CLINTONCOLUMBIAELK
HUNTINGDONJUNIATA LACKAWANNA
LUZERNELYCOMINGMCKEAN
MIFFLINMONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
POTTERSNYDERSULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGAUNION
WYOMING
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 00:19:03 +0000
WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HEZ TO
15 SSW MCB TO 10 WNW ASD TO 20 NNE BVE.
..MOORE..06/14/21
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...LIX...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC033-037-063-071-075-077-087-091-105-121-125-140240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST BATON ROUGEEAST FELICIANALIVINGSTON
ORLEANSPLAQUEMINESPOINTE COUPEE
ST. BERNARD ST. HELENA TANGIPAHOA
WEST BATON ROUGEWEST FELICIANA
GMZ530-140240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 00:00:07 +0000
MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 268... FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021
Areas affected...Western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 268...
Valid 140239Z - 140445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue across
portions of western Nebraska for the next 1-2 hours, but the
duration of the threat after 04 UTC is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across western and northwestern
NE continue to produce instances of measured severe wind gusts as
well as hail up to 1.5 inches. The convection that developed within
the warm frontal zone near the NE/SD border has been slow to grow
upscale with only recent cold pool organization noted in KLNX
velocity data. This activity will continue to migrate to the
southeast and interact with a broken line of storms moving eastward
out of the NE Panhandle. This interaction should maximize
convergence to the west/northwest of the KLNX area and provide
sufficient lift for continued development (and a continued severe
threat) in the near term given nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place.
The severe potential becomes less certain by (and after) 04 UTC as
the storms move towards the KLNX area. The 00Z North Platte sounding
revealed around -130 J/kg MLCIN, and decreasing low-level moisture
to the east of KLNX suggests capping may be stronger with eastward
extent. Storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity in this
environment in the absence of more organized mesocyclones (which is
unlikely given the limited deep-layer shear). Recent hi-res guidance
supports this idea, suggesting that the severe threat should
diminish after 04 UTC.
..Moore.. 06/14/2021
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON41620295 42420291 42810230 42900192 42990146 42920100
42570046 41950087 41510113 41200147 41260188 41410284
41620295
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 02:40:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will continue to
be possibly early this evening across parts of the central
Appalachians. Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be
possible in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Midwest and
southern Plains. Isolated large hail and wind damage is expected to
occur this evening in parts of the central Plains.
...Central Appalachians...
West-northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery
across much of the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is
located from northwest Pennsylvania into southern Ohio.Surface
dewpoints ahead of the front are generally in the 60s F. This is
contributing to moderate instability which is located in a corridor
from central Kentucky extending northeastward into the upper Ohio
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the eastern edge
of the stronger instability, with the strongest convection located
across north-central Pennsylvania and far southern New York. The
WSR-88D VWP at Binghamton, New York shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
due to directional shear in the low-levels. This combined with
moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates will be
favorable for damaging wind gusts with the more organized multicell
line segments. The severe threat may last another hour or two before
dissipating later this evening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A very moist airmass is in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley
with surface dewpoints mostly in the lower to mid 70s F. This is
contributing to an unstable airmass, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is weak,
low-level lapse rates are very steep. This combined with the
moderate to strong instability will be favorable for isolated
damaging wind gusts early this evening.
...Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge is currently in place across the southern
Rockies with northwest mid-level flow located across much of the
southern Plains. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture is located from east Texas extending northwestward into
southwest and central Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE along
this corridor in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The WSR-88D VWP at
Frederick, OK shows 0-6 km shear near 25 kt. This combined with the
moderate to strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates
should be favorable for strong to severe multicells early this
evening. Marginally severe wind damage and hail will be the main
threats.
...Central Plains...
An upper-level ridge is currently located in the southern and
central Rockies. At the surface, a moist airmass extends
northwestward from west-central Kansas into western Nebraska.
Moderate instability is analyzed along this corridor by the RAP,
with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
are ongoing along the western edge of the stronger instability from
northeast Colorado into western Nebraska. The WSR-88D VWP at
Cheyenne, Wyoming has 0-6 km shear near 40 kt with directional shear
in the low-levels. This will support supercell development with
large hail possible. The threat for hail will gradually transition
to a wind damage threat as the cells move eastward into the High
Plains later this evening.
..Broyles.. 06/14/2021
Read more
Mon, 14 Jun 2021 01:02:33 +0000
+--------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ---------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
