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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.06.21 16:47z 266 Lines 10352 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 807_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 210615/1635Z 807@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Tue, 15 Jun 2021 03:03:01 +0000
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 03:03:01 +0000
general
1
WW 273 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ VA CW 142325Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
725 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Central and Eastern Maryland
Southern New Jersey
Northern and Eastern Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 725 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop and/or move
into the region from the west-northwest this evening, with an
increasing potential for damaging winds, some severe hail, and
possibly a brief tornado risk. The downstream air mass is warm and
unstable. The severe risk is expected to continue well into the late
evening and early overnight hours before storms weaken and/or clear
the coast.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles east southeast
of Dover DE to 50 miles west of Washington DC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 270...WW 271...WW 272...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Guyer
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:30:03 +0000
WW 0273 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 273
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MRB
TO 35 NNW DCA TO 25 NE BWI TO 5 NNW PHL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
..MOORE..06/15/21
ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 273
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-150340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENTNEW CASTLE SUSSEX
DCC001-150340-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-045-
047-510-150340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDELCALVERT CAROLINE
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:30:03 +0000
WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PKB TO
15 W EKN TO 40 ESE MGW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
..MOORE..06/15/21
ATTN...WFO...RLX...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WVC083-150240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANDOLPH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 00:28:03 +0000
WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE EKN TO
35 W MRB TO 10 ESE HGR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
..MOORE..06/15/21
ATTN...WFO...LWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 271
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC043-069-139-171-187-840-150240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARKEFREDERICKPAGE
SHENANDOAHWARREN
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
WINCHESTER
WVC003-023-027-031-037-071-150240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY GRANTHAMPSHIRE
HARDY JEFFERSONPENDLETON
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 00:41:05 +0000
WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ILG TO
15 NNW PHL TO 5 NW TTN TO 15 NE EWR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
..MOORE..06/15/21
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...BGM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 270
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC005-007-015-021-023-025-029-033-150240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURLINGTONCAMDENGLOUCESTER
MERCERMIDDLESEXMONMOUTH
OCEAN SALEM
PAC045-101-150240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE PHILADELPHIA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 00:36:04 +0000
MD 0975 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273... FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Areas affected...Northern Virginia...eastern Maryland...Delaware and
southern New Jersey
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...
Valid 150209Z - 150415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for damaging
winds into the late evening hours as a cold front continues to push
eastward.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased along an eastward
moving cold front over the past 1-2 hours across VA into central NJ.
A few instances of severe hail have been noted, but wind damage
reports have been more common with this activity. Overall,
instability and deep-layer shear remain favorable for organized
convection in the near-term as sampled by the 00Z IAD sounding.
Storm modes will likely continue to gradually grow upscale with
strong, more consolidated outflows possible, which will pose a risk
for damaging winds. Temperatures across the region have begun to
cool with the loss of daytime heating, which is slowly increasing
mixed-layer inhibition and reducing MLCAPE. However, cool
temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer and strong forcing along the
cold front should continue to support thunderstorms into the late
evening hours.
..Moore.. 06/15/2021
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON38827793 39267642 39717532 40167432 40117389 39687405
39117460 38697484 38257516 37997543 38037626 38347699
38487794 38827793
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:10:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible in parts of the Mid
Atlantic this evening. Marginally severe wind gust may occur across
parts of the Carolinas. Hail and strong wind gusts will also be
possible across parts of the Texas Hill Country and from the central
High Plains to the northern Rockies.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level trough over the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is located from
western New York southwestward into western Pennsylvania. A moist
airmass, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F, is in place ahead of
the front across much of the Mid Atlantic region. Thunderstorms are
ongoing ahead of the front from West Virginia east-northeastward
into southeastern Pennsylvania. This convection will continue to
move eastward across northern Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey this
evening. The RAP is analyzing moderate instability across much of
the Mid Atlantic with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 k shear in the 45 to 50 kt
range suggesting that a wind damage potential will continue this
evening. The wind damage threat will be maximized along the leading
edge of the stronger multicell line segments.
...Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is currently located from the central Rockies
northward into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a narrow
corridor of maximized low-level moisture is in place from far
eastern Colorado north-northwestward into eastern Wyoming and
southeast Montana. Along this corridor, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with 35 to 45 kt of
0-6 km shear, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, should support a
marginal wind damage and hail threat this evening. Cell coverage
should remain very isolated due to warm air aloft. The greatest
convective coverage could be across eastern Wyoming and western
Nebraska, if the storm cluster in northeast Wyoming can remain
intact as it interacts with a belt of enhanced low-level flow later
this evening.
...Northern Rockies...
Water vapor imagery shows south-southwesterly mid-level flow in
place across the northwestern U.S. A shortwave trough appears to be
embedded in the flow across the Pacific Northwest. This trough is
associated with strong large-scale ascent, which is supporting
thunderstorm development in parts of Washington and Oregon. As
convection develops further to the east this evening, it will
encounter stronger instability in far eastern Washington, northern
Idaho and northwestern Montana. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear will support a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty
winds will be the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 06/15/2021
Read more
Tue, 15 Jun 2021 01:03:45 +0000
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