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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.06.21 17:37z 87 Lines 3895 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 525_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 210616/1730Z 525@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:31:01 +0000
Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:31:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 16 02:31:01 UTC 2021.
Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:30:06 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 16 02:31:01 UTC 2021.
Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:30:05 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail
will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic
Seaboard. Strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts
of the western to central Gulf Coast and in the northern Rockies.
...Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
southern Appalachians with a plume of mid-level moisture extending
east-northeastward across northern Florida, southern Georgia and
eastern South Carolina. At the surface, a cold front is advancing
southeastward across the eastern Carolinas and southern Georgia.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just ahead of the
front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are generally in the
lower to mid 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability.
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, a 50 to 60 kt mid-level speed max is analyzed by the RAP
across western south Carolina. This feature will enhance deep-layer
shear this evening making severe thunderstorm development possible.
The greatest potential for wind damage and hail will be across
eastern South Carolina as the exit region of the mid-level jet
passes through early this evening. Further south, a marginal wind
damage threat may exist across northern Florida where moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates are present, according
to the RAP.
...Western and Central Gulf Coast...
A very moist and unstable airmass is currently located from the
Texas Coastal Plains east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast.
Surface dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 70s F. The RAP is
analyzing moderate to strong instability along this corridor, with
MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/Kg range. In addition, steep
low-level lapse rates are present, which will make marginally severe
wind gusts a possibility for another hour or two. The greatest
potential for strong wind gusts may be in far southeast Texas where
a cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing.
...Northern Rockies...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest, with a 60 to 75 kt mid-level jet moving through
the base of the trough. Thunderstorms have developed along the
leading edge of large-scale ascent from northern Idaho into
northwest Montana. Convective coverage should increase this evening
as the shortwave trough continues to approach the northern Rockies.
Although instability is weak across the northern Rockies, deep-layer
shear is very strong with the RAP estimating 0-6 km shear in the 70
to 85 kt range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts and hail this evening.
..Broyles.. 06/16/2021
Read more
Wed, 16 Jun 2021 00:52:48 +0000
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