| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 18.06.21 03:20z 86 Lines 3895 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 617_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<KA1VSC<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210618/0317Z 617@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 13:55:02 +0000
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 13:55:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 17 13:55:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 13:54:26 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 17 13:55:02 UTC 2021.
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 13:54:12 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight for
parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, from northern Iowa/southern
Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.Wind gusts
near or exceeding 75 mph, hail up to the size of baseballs, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.
...Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains/southern
Prairie Provinces has crested the ridge, and heights will be
suppressed east-southeastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper
Great lakes by tonight.An associated, weak surface cold
front/trough will likewise move slowly southeastward across
NE/IA/MN/WI through tonight.The front and any lingering outflow
boundaries from overnight convection will likely focus afternoon and
evening thunderstorm development across southeast MN and along the
IA/MN border, in phase with an embedded speed max moving eastward
from SD (as evidence by the weak midlevel convection over SD this
morning).
The thermodynamic environment will feature steep midlevel lapse
rates with a warm elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the
Rockies, atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range.Strong
surface heating in the wake of morning elevated convection will
drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) and weakening
convective inhibition as surface temperatures warm into the 90s.
Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and the large CAPE will support a
threat for supercells initially, with very large hail (up to
baseball size) and damaging winds.Any semi-discrete storms in the
zone of stronger low-level shear/warm advection closer to the MS
River will also pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes.Otherwise,
storms are expected to coalesce and grow upscale into one or more
bowing clusters with the potential to produce significant damaging
winds (greater than 75 mph) prior to the convection spreading east
of the larger buoyancy late tonight.
...AR this afternoon/evening...
A remnant MCV over west central MO this morning will continue
southward over AR by later this afternoon.Strong surface heating
(temperatures warming into the lower 90s) and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the lower 70s will support MLCAPE in excess of 3000
J/kg, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-late afternoon.Deep-layer, north-northeasterly shear
of 20-30 kt and DCAPE in excess of 1200 J/kg suggest that any
cells/small clusters will move toward the south-southwest with the
potential to produce isolated damaging downbursts and large hail for
a few hours this late afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Leitman.. 06/17/2021
Read more
Thu, 17 Jun 2021 12:48:28 +0000
+--------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ---------------------------+
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
