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LU9DCE > ALERT 19.06.21 17:37z 433 Lines 17217 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 19-JUN.2021
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<KC9UHI<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210619/1730Z 743@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQK6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:39:01 +0000
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:39:01 +0000
general
1
WW 283 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO NE 190305Z - 191000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern and Eastern Iowa
Western Illinois
Northern Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1005 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of strong to severe storm development
are expected late this evening including across southern Iowa as
well as southeast Nebraska into northern Missouri. The strongest
storms will be capable of large hail. Damaging winds will also be a
possibility, particularly if a well-organized linear cluster evolves
through the early overnight hours as storms spread
east-southeastward across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of
Shenandoah IA to 30 miles east southeast of Burlington IA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 280...WW 281...WW 282...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:07:04 +0000
WW 282 SEVERE TSTM IL 190220Z - 190900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Illinois
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 920 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening across central to east-central/southeast Illinois, with
additional storms also potentially moving into the region late
tonight from the west. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected
with the strongest storms given the degree of instability and
moderately strong belt of west-northwesterly winds aloft.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest
of Springfield IL to 40 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Guyer
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:25:03 +0000
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 190110Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
910 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southern Ohio
Western West Virginia
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 910 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to move
south-southeastward across the region this evening, and possibly
into the overnight, with damaging winds and some severe hail as the
primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Louisville KY to 30 miles southeast of Athens OH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30035.
...Guyer
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:38:03 +0000
WW 280 SEVERE TSTM IN 182220Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
620 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Indiana
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 620 PM
until 200 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...The potential for storm development should increase
through early/mid evening along a boundary that extends across
central Indiana. Given the degree of moisture and instability, rapid
intensification and severe storm development could quickly occur,
including some supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds.
While storms may remain widely scattered this evening, an additional
and more widespread secondary round of severe storms could move into
the region late tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east southeast
of Muncie IN to 15 miles west southwest of Terre Haute IN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30020.
...Guyer
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:19:04 +0000
WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0283 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:07:05 +0000
WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..06/19/21
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC017-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-057-061-
079-101-107-113-115-117-125-129-135-137-139-147-159-167-169-171-
173-179-183-190440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASSCHAMPAIGNCHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY COLES
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT
DOUGLASEDGAREFFINGHAM
FAYETTEFULTONGREENE
JASPERLAWRENCELOGAN
MCLEANMACONMACOUPIN
MASON MENARDMONTGOMERY
MORGANMOULTRIEPIATT
RICHLAND SANGAMONSCHUYLER
SCOTT SHELBYTAZEWELL
VERMILION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:25:03 +0000
WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
..BUNTING..06/19/21
ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...RLX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-029-047-077-115-137-143-155-175-190440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK DEARBORNFRANKLIN
JEFFERSONOHIO RIPLEY
SCOTT SWITZERLANDWASHINGTON
KYC011-015-017-019-023-025-037-041-043-063-069-071-073-077-081-
089-097-103-115-117-119-135-153-159-161-165-175-181-185-187-191-
195-201-205-209-211-223-237-190440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATHBOONEBOURBON
BOYDBRACKEN BREATHITT
CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER
ELLIOTTFLEMING FLOYD
FRANKLIN GALLATINGRANT
GREENUPHARRISONHENRY
JOHNSONKENTONKNOTT
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:38:04 +0000
WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BUNTING..06/19/21
ATTN...WFO...IND...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC005-011-013-021-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065-071-079-
081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153-
165-167-190440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTHOLOMEW BOONEBROWN
CLAYDAVIESS DECATUR
DELAWARE FOUNTAINGREENE
HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS
HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS
JOHNSONKNOX LAWRENCE
MADISONMARIONMARTIN
MONROEMONTGOMERY MORGAN
OWENPARKEPUTNAM
RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY
SULLIVAN VERMILLION VIGO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:19:05 +0000
WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE IND
TO 20 WSW DAY TO 35 E DAY TO CMH TO 15 W ZZV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
..LYONS..06/19/21
ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC029-047-137-190340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEARBORN FRANKLINRIPLEY
OHC015-017-025-027-047-061-071-073-129-131-141-165-190340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUTLERCLERMONT
CLINTONFAYETTE HAMILTON
HIGHLAND HOCKING PICKAWAY
PIKEROSS WARREN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 02:09:04 +0000
MD 1004 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281... FOR NORTHEAST KY...FAR WESTERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Areas affected...northeast KY...far western WV
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...
Valid 190309Z - 190445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
continues.
SUMMARY...A bowing segment will move south and may require a local
watch extension for damaging wind potential beyond the current valid
area of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281.
DISCUSSION...A pronounced bowing segment with a history of severe
winds continues to move south at 45-50 mph across extreme northeast
KY. Although MUCAPE decreases with southward extent, current
indications are that the linear thunderstorm complex will likely
continue to pose a severe risk beyond the current area covered by WW
281, and a local areal extension may be needed.
..Bunting.. 06/19/2021
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON38078390 38268398 38488360 38468299 38418260 38388243
38298235 38078238 37858275 37898365 38078390
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 03:10:08 +0000
MD 1003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN
MO...WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Areas affected...southeast NE...southern IA...northern
MO...west-central IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 190227Z - 190430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this evening and overnight with the potential for very
large hail,damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.A watch
will likely be needed by 0330z for parts of the discussion area for
this scenario.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms has
developed over southeast NE the vicinity of an east-west stationary
front. Increasing large-scale ascent, owing to warm advection
with a developing low-level jet and a subtle mid-level impulse
approaching from central NE, should help focus additional
thunderstorm development near the front over southern IA/northern MO
during the next few hours.The environment is supportive of
supercells with 40-45 kts of effective shear and MUCAPE in excess of
2500 J/kg.Storms will be capable of very large hail and damaging
downburst winds.Some tornado risk will also exist due to the
proximity of the front, where effective SRH values are in excess of
200 m2/s2.Storm mode should evolve into linear/bowing segments
with time with damaging wind potential becoming more prominent.
A watch will likely be needed for parts of the discussion area by
0330z.
..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON39899069 40079280 40149399 40169710 40559721 41319587
41689409 41789270 41679130 41319067 40959031 40429022
39899069
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 02:28:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will continue this evening and parts of the
overnight hours across the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, although an
isolated tornado remains possible, especially across southern
Indiana/Ohio into northern Kentucky.
...01z Update...
Convection that developed across central IN/western OH has been slow
to organize into an MCS, likely due to deep westerly flow and weak
low-level convergence. However, over the last hour or so, scattered
supercells have begun to conglomerate across southeast IN/southwest
OH. This activity is handled differently by several high-res members
of the HREF. It is becoming increasingly likely that an organized
cluster should propagate south of the OH River where ample buoyancy
resides for the maintenance of this activity. For these reasons have
adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for this
southward-moving cluster.
Upstream, early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined
short-wave trough digging southeast across northern MN. This digging
feature will maintain deep west-northwesterly flow across IA into
the OH Valley. Substantial agitated cu field, with weak showers
(indicative of steep lapse rates) is noted along this corridor. As
LLJ strengthens across northern MO into central IL after sunset
there should be renewed intense convection develop. No appreciable
changes expected for this region.
Elsewhere, tropical feature south of the LA coast is lifting north
in line with earlier thinking. Ample shear extends into the central
Gulf States such that low severe probabilities will be maintained.
..Darrow.. 06/19/2021
Read more
Sat, 19 Jun 2021 00:52:53 +0000
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