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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.03.19 07:04z 422 Lines 21682 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 03
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WW 21 SEVERE TSTM TX 130650Z - 131400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 AM CDT Wed Mar
13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of central and northern
Texas
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 150 AM until 900 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to
70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move rapidly through the
watch area this morning with damaging gusts and the potential for
a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
50 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of
Fort Worth TX to 5 miles southwest of Temple TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.
...Bunting
WW 20 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 130545Z - 131100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed
Mar 13 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southwest Oklahoma
northwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday morning from 1245 AM until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to
70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will move rapidly northeast
across the watch area with damaging wind gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest
of Altus OK to 25 miles east of Fort Sill OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040.
...Bunting
WW 19 TORNADO TX 130255Z - 131000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 19 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of west Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 955 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events
to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Line of thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for
damaging wind, some hail and a couple tornadoes as it continues
eastward through west Texas into the overnight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of Abilene TX to
80 miles southeast of Fort Stockton TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 24035.
...Dial
WW 18 SEVERE TSTM TX 130240Z - 130800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 18 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Tue Mar
12 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northwest Texas
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 940 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Line of thunderstorms with embedded bowing and supercell
structures will continue to pose a threat for mainly damaging wind
and perhaps a tornado or two into the overnight. Some hail will
also be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of
Plainview TX to 75 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 24035.
...Dial
WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0021 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GLEASON..03/13/19
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-015-031-033-051-055-057-065-067-075-137-141-149-130740-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CADDO COMANCHE COTTON
GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON KIOWA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-130740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD
HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DRT TO
50 SW SJT TO 15 NW SJT TO 35 SW ABI TO 40 NNW ABI TO 70 SSE CDS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
..GLEASON..03/13/19
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC059-081-083-095-105-207-235-253-399-413-417-435-441-447-451-
465-130740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CONCHO
CROCKETT HASKELL IRION JONES
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SUTTON TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ABI TO
15 SE CDS TO 25 NNW CDS.
..GLEASON..03/13/19
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-130740-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF
TO 25 SW FST TO 25 NNW FST TO 10 N MAF TO 55 SSW LBB TO 35 WSW LBB
TO 50 WNW LBB TO 10 ENE CVS.
WW 17 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 130400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
..GLEASON..03/13/19
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC017-043-219-279-369-445-130400-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY BREWSTER HOCKLEY LAMB
PARMER TERRY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN
NORTH TX...WEST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Areas affected...Western North TX...West-Central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130637Z - 130800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective line moving through the TX Big County is
expected to continue eastward into north-central TX. Threat for
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will merit the issuance
of another watch.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line extends from
the southwest TX Panhandle to the Big Bend, with the central
portion of this line moving through the TX Big Country into
north-central TX. Generally eastward motion has been observed
within this portion of the line, with a recent increase in forward
speed noted as interaction with cells ahead of the line promotes
forward-propagation.
The downstream air mass is currently characterized by low-level
stability but that should quickly change as strong forcing for ascent
cools/moistens the low and mid-levels. Even so, only relatively
modest instability is anticipated. In contrast, very strong low to
mid-level flow will contribute to a strongly sheared environment
with effective bulk shear greater than 60 kt and 0-1 km SRH from
300-500 m2/s2 anticipated.
The already well-organized character of the ongoing line coupled
with the sufficient instability and strong vertical shear will
likely result in a continued severe threat. Primary severe threat
is expected to be damaging wind gusts, although embedded/QLCS
mesovortices are possible.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 03/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32199959 32329961 33229921 33499833 33589726 33079701
31699722 30969745 30829767 30719864 31019939 31489956 32199959
MD 0187 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 19... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL
TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Areas affected...Portions of west/central TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 19...
Valid 130542Z - 130715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 19 continues.
SUMMARY...Both an isolated damaging wind and tornado threat should
continue across WW 19 in the next 1-2 hours (through 07Z/2 AM CDT).
DISCUSSION...Ongoing squall line which has produced multiple 40-50+
kt gusts over the past couple of hours should continue to pose an
isolated damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours as it
moves quickly east-northeastward across parts of west TX. The best
wind potential should remain confined to mainly the northern half of
WW 19 where the overall line orientation has become more orthogonal
to the mean mid-level southwesterly flow and weak but sufficient
instability exists to maintain the overall line intensity. An
embedded tornado cannot be completely ruled out with the line
beginning to encounter enhanced low-level shear associated with a
60-70+ kt southerly low-level jet.
Farther south, a bit more discrete/supercellular convection
has recently developed from Terrell into Val Verde county and
vicinity. This area has greater low-level moisture in place
(mid 60s dewpoints) and very strong low-level shear compared to
locations farther north. The isolated tornado threat should be
relatively greater across this area in the short term given the
more favorable thermodynamics and storm mode. A small eastward
extension in area for WW 19 may eventually be needed for a small
part of this area if current storm motions continue.
..Gleason.. 03/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29810200 30730198 31570155 32170115 32600101 32930098
32949979 32949915 31459918 29670002 29200086 29680149 29810200
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and
an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of
the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.
...East Texas/Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move across the southern
Plains this morning into the central Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley this afternoon. At the surface, a powerful low pressure system
will deepen across the central High Plains as a line of strong
low-level convergence associated with thunderstorm development,
moves eastward across the southern Plains. Ahead of this activity,
a moist airmass will advect northward into the Arklatex and lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should increase into
the lower to mid 60s F across northern Louisiana and eastern
Arkansas. Weak instability is forecast to develop along this
corridor of maximized low-level moisture by afternoon. As the
line of thunderstorms moves eastward into the region, additional
convection may develop ahead of the line in the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, the line of storms from the
west and band of storms near the Mississippi River are forecast to
merge. This linear MCS should move east-northeastward into western
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early evening.
Concerning the severe threat, a marginal wind damage threat should
accompany the line of storms moving across east Texas this morning.
As surface heating takes place ahead of the line, the wind damage
threat associated with the line should gradually increase. RAP
forecast soundings near and just to the east of the line late this
afternoon in eastern Arkansas show MLCAPE around 500 J/kg with
very strong deep-layer shear. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in
the 75 to 80 kt range. This combined with 0-3 km storm relative
helicities in the 500 to 600 m2/s2 range should be favorable for
wind damage and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely
be the greatest associated with the band of storms that develops
ahead of the line in far eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi
and far western Tennessee. A hail threat will also be possible with
the stronger cells within the squall-line. The wind-damage threat
should affect areas as far east as middle Tennessee and northeastern
Mississippi during the evening.
...Southeast Nebraska/Far Northern Kansas... An upper-level low will
move northeastward into the central Plains today. Surface heating
and strong large-scale ascent will be favorable for thunderstorm
development this afternoon just to the southeast of the upper-level
low track. Enough instability is expected to develop across southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas for a marginal severe threat. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and cold air aloft may
be sufficient for hail with the stronger updrafts.
..Broyles/Gleason.. 03/13/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
portions of Mississippi and Alabama northward through central
Tennessee and Kentucky into Indiana, western Ohio and southern
Michigan. Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will all be possible
from midday through the evening hours.
...Synopsis... The intense mid/upper trough over the mid-MO
Valley will continue to shift east/northeast toward the Great
Lakes and eastern Ontario by Friday morning. This will maintain
a roughly 80-100 kt southwesterly midlevel jet streak across the
Lower Ohio Valley toward Lake Ontario. At the surface, a still
strong but filling cyclone will spread northeast in tandem with
the upper level trough, arriving in the vicinity of James Bay by
Friday morning. As the low lifts northeast, a cold front, oriented
south-southwest from eastern IA to central AR to near the TX Gulf
Coast at the beginning of the period, will shift eastward across
the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley region by Thursday evening.
...Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity... A strong south/southwesterly
low level jet will transport Gulf moisture fairly far northward
for this time of year, with at least a narrow corridor of low 60s
F dewpoints as far north as the Lower Ohio River, and low-to-mid
50s F dewpoints into southern Michigan. While the better quality
moisture will remain confined to the Deep South, forcing for ascent
and deep layer shear are much more impressive from the Ohio Valley
into southern MI. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are expected
to steepen from KY/IN into MI as stronger height falls and colder
temperatures aloft overspread the region ahead of a midlevel dryslot
by midday.
All of this combined leads to a narrow warm sector characterized
by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, 6.5-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates,
impressive/large curved low level hodographs and 45+ kt effective
shear. While this parameter space is more than capable of supporting
widespread severe, including damaging winds and possible strong
tornadoes, quite a bit of uncertainty still exists. This is due
in part to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected
in the Day 1/Wed period, with ongoing convection possible in warm
advection regime at the start of the Day 2/Thu period. Impacts of
this convection/residual cloud cover on destabilization, and how
far/quickly the surface cold front progresses by Thursday morning
makes for a quite conditional scenario. As a result, have opted to
expand the Slight risk northward across the Mid-South into southern
MI. Uncertainty and conditional nature of the threat will preclude
higher probs at this time across parts of KY/IN/MI/OH, but potential
certainly exists for a higher-end threat to materialize across
this region, as implied by various CAMs in the 18-00z time frame.
Observational and numerical guidance trends will be monitored
closely.
...TN Valley toward the Central Gulf Coast...
Poorer lapse rates and much weaker forcing is expected with
southward extent as the upper trough ejects away from the region.
Near-neutral height tendancies and warmer temperatures aloft will
result in weaker lapse rates compared to further north. Still,
deep layer shear (45+ kt effective shear) will remain more than
capable of sustaining organized convection. With mid-to-upper 60s
F dewpoints resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting bowing
line segments or supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
will be possible with any sustained storms that can develop, but
the lack of stronger forcing will generally limit storm coverage.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 03/13/2019
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
What happened last night can happen again.
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