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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.07.21 16:41z 686 Lines 27936 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2031_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-JUL.21
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Sent: 210710/1630Z 2031@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:58:02 +0000
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:58:02 +0000
general
1
WW 363 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 100300Z - 101000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwestern Iowa
Northeastern Kansas
Northwestern Missouri
Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1000 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are expected to form
within and move into the watch area during the overnight hours.The
storm environment and predominant cluster mode supports swaths of
damaging winds (some near 80 mph) as the main threat, though more
isolated supercells early in the watch could produce hail close to
tennis ball size.An isolated tornado or two may also occur with
storm interactions.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Tekamah NE to 20 miles southeast of Topeka KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW
358...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361...WW 362...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Thompson
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:00:04 +0000
WW 362 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 100235Z - 100700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
935 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East central Colorado
West central Kansas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 935 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters forming in eastern Colorado could
pose a threat for damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail for
the next few hours as the storms spread southeastward into western
Kansas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south
southwest of Burlington CO to 50 miles south southeast of Hill City
KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW
358...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Thompson
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:45:04 +0000
WW 361 SEVERE TSTM NE 100205Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and northern Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 905 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms are expected to move
east-southeastward across central Nebraska this evening with an
attendant threat for isolated significant severe gusts (near 75
mph), as well as isolated very large hail (near tennis ball size)
with any persistent supercells.Additional storms will move into
northern Nebraska early tonight from the northwest, and will pose a
continued threat for damaging winds/large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Mullen
NE to 50 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW
358...WW 359...WW 360...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Thompson
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:53:03 +0000
WW 360 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 100145Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
845 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North central Kansas
Central and northeast Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 845 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread
east-southeastward across Nebraska and northern Kansas through the
early overnight hours.A mix of bowing clusters and supercells will
pose a threat for significant severe wind gusts (near 80 mph) and
isolated very large hail (near tennis ball size).In addition, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with embedded supercells
and storm interactions.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of Oneill NE to 60 miles west southwest of Concordia KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW
358...WW 359...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30035.
...Thompson
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:51:03 +0000
WW 359 TORNADO IL MO 100120Z - 100700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
West central Illinois
North central and northeast Missouri
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 820 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this
evening as the storms spread southeastward.The storm environment
is favorable for supercells capable of producing a couple of
tornadoes, as well as isolated very large hail (near tennis ball
size) and significant severe gusts (near 75 mph).The storms could
later grow into a cluster, with a continuing severe threat into the
early overnight hours.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Kirksville
MO to 60 miles south of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW 358...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 32025.
...Thompson
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:49:04 +0000
WW 356 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 092010Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Western and central Nebraska
Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and pose
a risk for potentially very large hail and damaging winds.Storms
should evolve into a line by this evening with an increasing risk
for damaging winds, potentially significant.A tornado or two is
also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northwest of Cheyenne WY to 20 miles south southeast of Broken Bow
NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Bunting
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 01:40:05 +0000
WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0363 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:00:07 +0000
WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...DDC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-063-099-100400-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWAKIT CARSON
PROWERS
KSC055-063-071-075-093-101-109-135-171-181-193-195-199-203-
100400-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEYGOVE GREELEY
HAMILTON KEARNYLANE
LOGAN NESS SCOTT
SHERMANTHOMASTREGO
WALLACEWICHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:45:04 +0000
WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-015-017-031-041-069-071-075-089-091-101-103-111-113-
115-117-149-161-171-183-100400-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHURBLAINEBOYD
BROWN CHERRYCUSTER
GARDENGARFIELDGRANT
HOLTHOOKERKEITH
KEYA PAHALINCOLN LOGAN
LOUPMCPHERSONROCK
SHERIDAN THOMASWHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:53:04 +0000
WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC089-123-141-147-163-183-100400-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEWELLMITCHELLOSBORNE
PHILLIPS ROOKSSMITH
NEC001-003-011-019-027-035-037-047-059-061-065-073-077-079-081-
083-093-099-107-119-121-125-129-137-139-141-143-163-167-169-175-
179-181-185-100400-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPEBOONE
BUFFALOCEDARCLAY
COLFAXDAWSONFILLMORE
FRANKLIN FURNASGOSPER
GREELEYHALL HAMILTON
HARLANHOWARDKEARNEY
KNOXMADISON MERRICK
NANCE NUCKOLLSPHELPS
PIERCEPLATTEPOLK
SHERMANSTANTON THAYER
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:51:04 +0000
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE IRK
TO 25 SSE UIN TO 20 W SPI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-137-149-157-163-171-100445-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUNGREENEJERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
MORGANPIKE RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIRSCOTT
MOC001-007-019-027-033-041-055-071-073-079-089-099-113-115-117-
121-129-137-139-151-163-171-173-175-183-186-187-189-195-197-205-
211-219-221-510-100445-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE
CALLAWAY CARROLL CHARITON
CRAWFORD FRANKLINGASCONADE
GRUNDYHOWARDJEFFERSON
LINCOLNLINN LIVINGSTON
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:58:06 +0000
WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW UIN
TO 25 SE BRL.
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC067-109-100330-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCKMCDONOUGH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:49:05 +0000
WW 0357 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CDR TO
20 ESE RAP.
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC033-047-102-100400-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTERFALL RIVER OGLALA LAKOTA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:47:06 +0000
WW 0356 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 356
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S AKO TO
30 SSE BFF TO 25 SE DGW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
..SMITH..07/10/21
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 356
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-121-125-100230-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPSSEDGWICK
WASHINGTONYUMA
KSC023-039-137-153-100230-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR NORTON
RAWLINS
NEC005-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-045-047-049-057-063-065-069-
073-075-085-087-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-149-157-
161-165-171-100230-
NE
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 01:40:06 +0000
MD 1225 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR NORTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...northwest NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...
Valid 100344Z - 100515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.
SUMMARY...An intense supercell cluster will likely transition to a
bow-shaped complex over the next 1 to 1.5 hours.During this
relatively rare convective evolution, wind-driven large hail within
a focused corridor of potential severe gusts may occur.
DISCUSSION...An intense cluster of thunderstorms is quickly moving
southeast across the NE Panhandle this evening ahead of a shortwave
trough located over southeast MT/northeast WY.Strong
west-northwesterly flow (50-60 kt) sampled between 4-8 km AGL atop
low-level easterlies was noted on the Thedford, NE 88D VAD.The
strong shear/forcing will favor a continuation of organized severe
thunderstorms southeastward into west-central NE.It seems
plausible wind-driven hail may accompany these storms as they move
southeast over the next 1 to 1.5 hours.Severe gusts 60-75 mph and
large hail are the threats with this activity.
..Smith.. 07/10/2021
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON42260154 41890155 41610172 41500215 42080341 42310293
42710271 42600253 42260154
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:45:03 +0000
MD 1224 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 359... FOR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...Northeast and central Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 359...
Valid 100326Z - 100430Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 359 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for severe/significant winds is increase in
parts of central/eastern Missouri as a broad mesocyclone continues
to develop and move south/southeastward.
DISCUSSION...A broad mesocyclone is evident on KLSX radar velocity
imagery roughly centered in Ralls County, MO. As this feature
continues southward into a moderate to strongly unstable
environment, the potential for significant wind gusts will increase
in portions of central/eastern Missouri. The 00Z SGF sounding
sampled 8+ C/km lapse rates with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Strong
downdrafts will continue to be favored in this environment,
particularly as effective shear remains at 35-40 kts. Though storm
mode has become linear, KLSX VAD profile continues to show enough
low-level veering to support a threat for QLCS circulations and
brief tornadoes.
..Wendt.. 07/10/2021
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON40469325 40129236 39909145 40189083 40238984 39758944
38688999 38309040 38009143 38319227 38669285 40469325
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:27:03 +0000
MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... FOR SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...southeast NE
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...
Valid 100320Z - 100515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.
SUMMARY...Significant severe gusts are becoming more likely as a
squall line organizes and quickly moves into southeast NE through
midnight.Widespread severe gusts are probable (60-70 mph) and
localized gusts 75-85 mph are possible in east-southeast oriented
swaths.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying squall line over
east-central NE moving southeast at 40-45 kt.Surface analysis
shows backed low-level surface winds to the east of the squall line
over eastern NE within a baroclinic zone.Surface temperatures have
only slowly cooled into the low-mid 80s near I-80 with surface
dewpoints in the mid 70s.As a result, it seems plausible upwards
of 17-18 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean ratios are present ahead of the
squall line.As the squall line continues to mature over the next
hour, this moisture-rich airmass will enhance the potential for
large, water-loaded storms.The early signs of this occurring are
indicated by echo tops exceeding 60 kft in Buffalo County in recent
radar data.The favorable wind profile (40-50 kt effective shear)
and large buoyancy will strongly favor a severe MCS across southeast
NE during the next 1-3 hours as a terminus of a strengthening LLJ
focuses over the area.Significant severe gusts (75-85 mph) are
possible in localized swaths within broader severe gusts with the
squall line.
..Smith.. 07/10/2021
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON40569842 41129790 41319733 40869611 40229607 39969676
40569842
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 03:21:03 +0000
MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NE...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...eastern NE...southwest IA...northeast
KS...northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 100212Z - 100415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by late
evening for a severe risk expected to develop during the overnight.
Severe gusts will be the primary risk with the stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of storms from the
SD/NE border into parts of western NE.Water-vapor imagery
indicates the leading plume of large-scale ascent associated with a
mid-level shortwave trough, is currently over the Sandhills.The
airmass over northeast KS northward into eastern NE/southwest IA is
very unstable with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE according to modified
Topeka, KS and Omaha, NE 00z raobs.The onset of an intensifying
LLJ over the central Great Plains is being observed in KUEX and KTWX
88D VAD data.Models indicate the LLJ and associated warm air
advection/isentropic lift will increase through midnight with the
terminus of the LLJ focused over southeast NE/southwest IA and
adjacent parts of northeast KS/northwest MO.Current expectation is
the ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm clusters over central NE
will move east-southeast over the next couple of hours, with an
associated severe hazard and move into western parts of the
discussion area by 11pm-12am.
..Smith/Thompson.. 07/10/2021
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON42239676 41879537 41059389 39949371 39229415 38929566
39319777 42239676
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 02:13:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and large hail will be
likely across parts of the central and northern Plains
east-southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley tonight.
An isolated tornado threat may also develop across parts of the
lower to mid Missouri Valley tonight. Storms with marginally severe
hail and wind gusts will be possible this evening along the Eastern
Seaboard.
...Central and Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley...
A positively-titled upper-level trough will dig east-southeastward
into the northern High Plains tonight. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low moves
across the central Plains. The low will track east-northeastward
along a quasi-stationary front extending eastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints along and to the north
of the front are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, which is
contributing to strong to extreme instability. The RAP is estimating
MLCAPE to be as high as 4000 to 5000 J/kg from central Nebraska
east-southeastward into northwest Missouri.
Further to the west, moderate instability is in place across the
central High Plains where scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
are ongoing. MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range from eastern Wyoming into southwestern South Dakota and
western Nebraska. This combined with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 65 kt
range and 850 to 500 mb lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than
2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense updrafts
during the early to mid evening.
Large-scale ascent will steadily increase across the central Plains
this evening as the upper-level trough approaches. As a result,
thunderstorm development will occur across much of Nebraska. Cold
pool development is expected as a linear MCS moves quickly eastward
across the central Plains. The MCS will become more organized as a
40 to 50 kt jet strengthens across northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska. Strengthening will also occur as the MCS moves into the
extremely unstable airmass, currently located in eastern Nebraska
and northwest Missouri. Damaging wind gusts will be likely along the
leading edge of the MCS, with some wind gusts greater than 70 knots
possible. Supercells that are embedded in the linear MCS may be able
to produce very large hail. These rotating cells should also have a
tornado threat.
The linear MCS is expected to reach the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley late in the period. A severe threat could continue into the
early morning across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley where
isolated wind damage and hail will be the primary threats.
...Eastern Seaboard...
Water vapor currently shows an upper-level trough from the lower
Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the trough, a
moderately unstable airmass is in place along much of the Eastern
Seaboard. Several small clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing from
the Mid-Atlantic Coast south-southwestward into the far eastern
Carolinas. Due to the instability combined with steep low-level
lapse rates, a marginal wind-damage threat will exist for another
hour or so this evening before cooling surface temperature mitigate
the threat.
..Broyles.. 07/10/2021
Read more
Sat, 10 Jul 2021 01:05:28 +0000
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