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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.07.21 17:01z 453 Lines 17437 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2099_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210711/1630Z 2099@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:46:02 +0000
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:46:02 +0000
general
1
WW 370 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 110235Z - 110800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
935 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
Northwest and north central Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 935 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of severe storms in central Oklahoma will likely
continue to spread south-southeastward into the overnight hours,
with additional storm development expected on the west end of the
line.The strongest embedded storms will pose a threat for damaging
winds and isolated large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of
Altus OK to 55 miles east northeast of Ardmore OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 367...WW
368...WW 369...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
35025.
...Thompson
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:28:03 +0000
WW 369 SEVERE TSTM AZ 102350Z - 110700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM MDT Sat Jul 10 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central Arizona
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 550
PM until 100 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southeast
Arizona and along the Mogollon Rim are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity the next few hours, and the storms could
evolve into a larger storm cluster and spread west-southwestward
into the lower deserts later this evening into early tonight.The
primary severe threats will be damaging outflow winds of 60-70 mph
and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of
Phoenix AZ to 70 miles west southwest of Tucson AZ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW
367...WW 368...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
07025.
...Thompson
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:05:06 +0000
WW 368 SEVERE TSTM OK 102225Z - 110500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Parts of central and western Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 6-7pm CDT along a
cold front from north central into west central Oklahoma.The storm
environment favors broken bands of multicell clusters and supercells
capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, and the severe
threat will persist into the early overnight hours as storms spread
southeastward across central and southwest Oklahoma.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest
of Clinton OK to 45 miles northeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32020.
...Thompson
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:26:05 +0000
WW 367 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 102000Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
Northeast Oklahoma
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will be capable of large
hail and damaging winds initially, before evolving into a line with
an increasing risk for more widespread damaging winds this evening.
A tornado or two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Enid OK to 35 miles north northeast of West Plains MO.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Bunting
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:25:04 +0000
WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 370
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 370
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-029-033-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-133-137-
110440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYANCARTER
COALCOTTONGARVIN
HUGHESJEFFERSONJOHNSTON
LOVEMARSHALLMURRAY
PONTOTOC SEMINOLESTEPHENS
TXC009-023-077-097-155-181-197-275-337-485-487-110440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHERBAYLORCLAY
COOKE FOARDGRAYSON
HARDEMAN KNOX MONTAGUE
WICHITAWILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:28:04 +0000
WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 369
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PRC TO
45 SSW SAD.
..WENDT..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 369
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC013-019-021-110440-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARICOPA PIMA PINAL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:05:07 +0000
WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CSM TO
35 NW CHK TO 20 SSW CQB.
..MOSIER..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-015-027-031-051-055-057-065-075-087-125-141-149-110440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAMCADDOCLEVELAND
COMANCHE GRADYGREER
HARMONJACKSON KIOWA
MCCLAINPOTTAWATOMIETILLMAN
WASHITA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:26:06 +0000
WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW OKC TO
15 NE CQB TO 35 ENE MKO TO 20 SSE HRO TO 30 SSE UNO.
..MOSIER..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC033-047-065-087-101-121-129-131-135-137-143-110440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD FRANKLINIZARD
MADISONNEWTONRANDOLPH
SEARCYSEBASTIANSHARP
STONE WASHINGTON
MOC109-110440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAWRENCE
OKC001-021-061-079-091-101-107-111-135-110440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEEHASKELL
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 03:25:04 +0000
WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 366
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW TOP
TO 10 N MKC TO 30 WSW CDJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
..WENDT..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 366
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC045-091-209-110140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DOUGLASJOHNSON WYANDOTTE
MOC095-110140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 00:45:08 +0000
WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 365
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE VIH
TO 10 NE FAM TO 10 SE MDH TO 35 SW EVV.
..MOSIER..07/11/21
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 365
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-069-087-127-151-153-181-110240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDERHARDINJOHNSON
MASSACPOPE PULASKI
UNION
MOC017-023-031-035-093-123-179-181-186-187-201-207-223-110240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGERBUTLERCAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTERIRON MADISON
REYNOLDS RIPLEYSTE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOISSCOTTSTODDARD
WAYNE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 01:32:07 +0000
MD 1252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110249Z - 110415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust will be
possible with near surface-based supercells moving southeastward in
northeast New Mexico. No WW is expected.
DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed along the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeast New Mexico. With perhaps only subtle
upper-level support, the longevity of this activity is in question.
However, under this steep mid-level lapse rate, northwest flow
regime, 35-40 kts of effective shear could help sustain these
southeastward moving storms longer than expected. Should storms
persist they would encounter greater buoyancy. Isolated large hail
would likely be the main threat with these storms, though a strong
wind gust could also occur before surface stabilization becomes
stronger. Given the uncertainty, no WW is expected.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/11/2021
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON36020525 36330548 36720489 36390395 35620322 35260326
35040379 34940433 36020525
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 02:50:04 +0000
MD 1250 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Central and southeastern Arizona
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369...
Valid 110155Z - 110400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms continue to move off the higher terrain in central
and southeastern Arizona. Severe wind gusts are the primary threat
with these storms, though isolated large hail is also possible.
DISCUSSION...Storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim into southeastern
Arizona has increased early this evening. These clusters of storms
are expected to continue to move off the higher terrain and pose a
threat for severe winds gusts. The strongest gusts so far have
occurred in southeastern Arizona. The cluster is moving roughly
westward, the main portion of which may reach south of Tucson later
this evening. Additional development has occurred in northwestern
Cochise County and could impact western portions of Pima County as
well.
Northeast of Phoenix, a nearly contiguous line of thunderstorms
continues to move south/southwest off of the Mogollon Rim. Current
timing of the line suggest it may impact portions of the Phoenix
Metro between 9-10 PM MST. Severe wind gusts as well as isolated
large hail will be possible.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2021
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON33841262 34251190 34381122 33681005 32700977 32051014
31621048 31411098 31601146 32491237 33311274 33841262
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 01:56:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds are expected this
evening from central Oklahoma to the Ozarks. Additional severe
storms with damaging gusts and hail are likely over southern
Arizona.
...OK into the Ozarks...
A substantial MCS is currently situated over northeast OK, with a
secondary line of storms just northeast into southwest MO. Height
falls/cooling aloft will continue across the region tonight, with
gradually increasing low to mid level flow. A favorable instability
pool with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg as well as increasing SR inflow this
evening should allow for a strengthening MCS to translate
south/southwest into central and eastern OK, with damaging wind
gusts expected.
Storms currently over southwest MO will also have severe potential
this evening as favorable theta-e extends southward across AR,
although a bit less than over OK.
...Southern AZ...
Scattered storms currently extend along the Rim, with surface
observations showing a strong northeast outflow surge developing.
Meanwhile, hot temperatures and a moist air mass are in place across
the desert floors with PWAT over 1.50" in some areas per GPS
sensors.Therefore, there appears to be a reasonable chance of
damaging wind gusts this evening as outflows become better
established. Westward moving cells may even contain marginal hail as
winds aloft are light, but veer with height.
..Jewell.. 07/11/2021
Read more
Sun, 11 Jul 2021 00:42:06 +0000
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