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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.03.19 07:03z 113 Lines 5686 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20091_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190315/0701Z 20091@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA...
...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms capable of wind damage
are possible this afternoon across portions of central and eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...Synopsis... The powerful cyclone that has affected much of
the CONUS for the past few days is forecast to move northeastward
across Quebec today, as a trailing cold front pushes through much
of the eastern seaboard. A large-scale upper trough will remain in
place across the central/eastern CONUS as smaller-scale vorticity
maxima move through the mean trough position.
...NC into Southeast VA... While weak elevated convection may be
ongoing at the start of the period from the Southeast into the
Mid Atlantic, more robust thunderstorm development is possible
this afternoon as the cold front pushes into the Carolinas and
eastern Virginia. Ahead of the front, MLCAPE of 400-750 J/kg will
likely develop as temperatures warm into the mid-upper 70s F and
sufficient low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 60s) remains
in place. Coverage may be limited to some extent by a capping
inversion around 700-750 mb, but widely scattered thunderstorms
will be possible by 19-20Z. Strong midlevel flow will support
organized storm structures with any sustained updrafts that can
become established, though the limited buoyancy will likely limit
updraft intensity to some extent. A belt of strong southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of the front will support the potential for at
least localized damaging wind gusts with the strongest convection
during the afternoon and early evening.
..Dean/Gleason.. 03/15/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144
PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on
Saturday.
...Gulf Coast region...
A large area of continental-polar high pressure will dominate the
eastern half of the U.S. contributing to offshore flow over the
Gulf. Within this post-frontal regime, a southern-stream shortwave
trough will move through TX into the lower MS Valley, preceded by a
weaker disturbance. Weak isentropic ascent within the post-frontal
region will contribute to the development of showers along the Gulf
coast. At this time, it appears instability will remain too limited
for significant thunderstorm activity inland.
...South Fl...
A few showers may develop within frontal zone over the southern
FL Peninsula as well as along seabreeze boundaries. However,
presence of a pronounced mid-level subsidence inversion suggests
the convection will remain too shallow for lightning activity.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 03/15/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward from the Great
Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and eastern Canada
today. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will
dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS, with minimal fire
weather threat evident. Although some locally strong/gusty offshore
winds should continue across portions of southern CA, generally
moist fuels are not expected to support fire spread across this
region. Some strong/gusty easterly surface winds should also develop
this afternoon across parts of southern AZ/NM into west TX where
the surface pressure gradient will be slightly enhanced. However,
RH values should remain mostly above 20%. Therefore, an elevated
area has not been introduced across this region.
..Gleason.. 03/15/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... High pressure will remain over a large portion of the
CONUS on Day 2/Saturday. Moderate to locally strong/gusty offshore
winds may persist Saturday morning for parts of the higher terrain in
southern CA. However, fuels are not expected to be receptive to large
fire starts. Across the remainder of the CONUS, reduced RH values
are not forecast to overlap areas of strong/gusty winds. Therefore,
no elevated areas have been delineated.
..Gleason.. 03/15/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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