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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.07.21 15:01z 324 Lines 11709 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2655_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<KC9UHI<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210724/1431Z 2655@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 24 Jul 2021
03:34:02 +0000 Sat, 24 Jul 2021 03:34:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 WW 388 SEVERE TSTM ND SD
240000Z - 240700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM CDT Fri
Jul 23 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern North Dakota Northern South Dakota
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Upscale organization of initially isolated strong-severe
thunderstorms is possible over western parts of the watch area,
on either side of the ND/SD line. Activity initially poses a mixed
large-hail and damaging-wind threat, which would transition more to
wind in the event of a forward-propagating MCS/cold-pool evolution
into a moisture-rich air mass farther east, as forecast by some
near-term model guidance.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest
of Lemmon SD to 60 miles north northeast of Watertown SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28035.
...Edwards
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 02:13:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387 WW 387 SEVERE TSTM MN LS
232145Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 387 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Fri
Jul 23 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota including the Arrowhead Lake Superior
* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 445
PM until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are already present
over parts of the region and adjoining portions of ON. Through the
evening, this activity is expected to increase in coverage, from
northwestern MN to the Boundary Waters and Lake Superior North Shore,
with storms moving eastward to southeastward. Damaging gusts and
large hail both are expected.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south
southwest of Thief River Falls MN to 65 miles northeast of Silver
Bay MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Edwards
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 02:12:05 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 Status Reports WW 0388
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PHP TO
35 SSE Y22 TO 20 E Y22 TO 35 SSE BIS TO 30 WSW JMS.
..JEWELL..07/24/21
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC021-029-045-047-051-073-077-081-085-240340-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY EMMONS LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
SIOUX
SDC013-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-089-091-107-
109-115-129-240340-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CLARK CODINGTON
CORSON DAY DEUEL DEWEY
EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN
MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS
SPINK WALWORTH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 02:13:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387 Status Reports WW 0387
Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BRD TO
30 SW HIB TO 25 W BFW TO 25 SSE GNA.
..JEWELL..07/24/21
ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-075-137-240340-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON LAKE ST. LOUIS
LSZ142-143-144-162-240340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE
MN BEYOND 5NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 02:12:05 +0000
SPC MD 1337 MD 1337 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
388... FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021
Areas affected...northeast South Dakota...southeast North
Dakota...west-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...
Valid 240333Z - 240530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe gusts or marginally severe hail remains possible
with a cluster of cells moving the North/South Dakota border.
DISCUSSION...A primary cluster of storms continues east/southeast
near the ND/SD border, with new development on the southwest flank.
A 75 mph gust was recently measured in McPherson County SD. VWPs
across ND show increased northwest winds just above the surface,
indicating the deeper cold advection. This is aiding additional
storms on the northwest side of the primary cluster.
Temperatures aloft remain cool due east of the advancing convection,
and the boundary layer remains very moist and unstable. Height
falls with the upper trough will continue, favoring at least a
continued threat across the remainder of WW 388 and perhaps to the
east. Parts of west-central MN may need a watch should the storms
continue to produce severe gusts.
..Jewell.. 07/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46239998 46659987 46819947 47059658 46689565 45749551
45329597 45209676 45189913 45250017 45400041 46239998
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 03:33:03 +0000
SPC MD 1336 MD 1336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021
Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240207Z - 240430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will move from South Dakota into
Minnesota, possibly with strong gust potential.
DISCUSSION...Sporadic storms have developed within a broad band
of precipitation extending from north-central NE into eastern SD.
Despite cooler boundary-layer temperatures, robust moisture is in
place with PWAT over 2.00" measured on GPS sensors near FSD.
Warmer midlevel temperatures exist in this region compared to
farther north, which is hampering hail potential. In addition,
deep-layer shear is less with only 25-30 kt winds at 500 mb. Despite
this, a growing cluster of storms may be able to produce strong,
water-loaded downdrafts, as instability remains favorable downstream
into MN. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for upscale
growth that may necessitate watch consideration.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43379743 43259832 43439886 43829913 44209909 44579855
44819762 45079593 44859553 44449524 43999528 43689585
43569655 43379743
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 02:08:02 +0000
SPC Jul 24, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739
PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large
hail remain possible early tonight from parts of the northern Plains
to western Lake Superior.
...Northern Plains to western Lake Superior...
Mid-level heights are expected to fall across the northern US ahead
of a short-wave trough that should dig southeast into MN after
midnight. Influence of this upstream feature is beginning to aid
mid-level convection across ND, and stronger surface-based storms
developing along the front southwest of BIS into northwest SD. This
activity should continue to expand east as the frontal zone advances
downstream after sunset. 00z ABR sounding exhibited substantial
instability with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40kt surface-6km bulk shear.
While extensive clouds have held the surface readings just below
convective temperatures over this region, frontal convergence should
prove adequate for additional development later this evening.
Downstream across northeast MN, convection that developed across
western ON into northern MN, ahead of a weak disturbance, has
gradually sagged southeast over the last few hours. This activity
should continue southeast toward western LS as heights are suppressed
across the western Great Lakes. Isolated hail/wind remain possible
with these storms.
..Darrow.. 07/24/2021
Read more
Sat, 24 Jul 2021 00:43:26 +0000
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