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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.07.21 23:44z 139 Lines 6269 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2746_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<KC9UHI<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210726/2330Z 2746@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 26 Jul 2021 02:51:01 +0000
Mon, 26 Jul 2021 02:51:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 26 02:51:01 UTC 2021.
Mon, 26 Jul 2021 02:50:08 +0000
MD 1349 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021
Areas affected...southeast North Dakota...northeast South
Dakota...and western Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260249Z - 260445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage this
evening. Isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be
possible -- especially with initial development. Given the
isolated/disorganized nature of any severe threat, a watch is
currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
expand in coverage this evening into the overnight hours across
portions of southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and
western Minnesota. These thunderstorms are developing on the nose of
modest warm-air advection between 850 and 700 millibars. This
airmass being advected in remains largely unstable, with
most-unstable CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg across
north-central South Dakota. Although deep-layer shear is between 35
and 40 knots, effective-layer shear remains poor -- largely
remaining less than 20 knots. Given the degree of instability and
mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, isolated large hail and gusty
thunderstorm winds may occur with initial updraft pulses. However,
the lack of effective-layer shear should hinder thunderstorm
organization, and increasing thunderstorms coverage should result in
destructive interference to support a sustained/organized severe
weather threat. As such a watch is currently not anticipated, but
conditions will continue to be monitored.
..Marsh/Grams.. 07/26/2021
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON45999764 46529769 46819682 46369530 45659464 44889463
44579537 45019685 45619761 45999764
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Mon, 26 Jul 2021 02:50:04 +0000
MD 1348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021
Areas affected...Southern Nevada and portions of northwest Arizona
and southeast California
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260245Z - 260415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms capable of severe wind gusts is moving
through southern Nevada.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has continued southwestward and has
become more organized as it moves off of the terrain and toward the
Las Vegas valley. A wind gust of 70 mph was recently measured at
Hoover Dam. Temperatures still remain around 100 degrees in Las
Vegas, which provides ample instability for additional strong
development. Expect some severe wind gusts across southern Nevada in
the next 1 to 2 hours with the chance for a significant (75+ mph)
wind gust where the strongest storm cores collapse. This cluster may
continue to pose a threat for severe wind gusts for a few more hours
but severity should wane as the boundary layer begins to cool.
..Bentley/Grams.. 07/26/2021
ATTN...WFO...VEF...
LAT...LON36641484 36411391 36241350 35831336 35241390 34981422
34891468 34851500 35091530 35371546 35761563 36641484
Read more
Mon, 26 Jul 2021 02:46:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA REGION...PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...AND OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe remains possible this evening across portions of
Oklahoma and the South Dakota region. A few storms may also produce
gusty winds over the lower Colorado River Valley.
...South Dakota...
Intense surface heating across SD effectively removed inhibition as
surface-3km lapse rates approached dry adiabatic this afternoon. As
a result, scattered high-based thunderstorms developed along a
low-level confluence zone that stretches from Bennett County to
Spink County. This activity should continue to propagate slowly
southeast this evening as 00z sounding from ABR exhibited roughly
1900 J/kg MLCAPE with ample shear for some organization. Later this
evening, LLJ should increase into eastern SD and isentropic ascent
may contribute to additional convection from southeast ND into
southwest MN. Satellite imagery supports this possibility with a few
narrow NW-SE bands of ACCAS currently noted across this region.
...Oklahoma...
New convection has recently developed along a convective outflow as
it sags toward I-40 over western OK. Surface temperatures remain
warm ahead of this activity with readings still in the lower 90s. If
sufficient cold pool can be maintained, convection may continue
sagging south with some potential for gusty winds for the next few
hours.
...Lower Colorado River Valley...
A few clusters of strong thunderstorms are propagating southwest
toward the lower CO River Valley. Temperatures remain hot across
this region and 00z sounding from VEF suggests ample flow for
continued southwest movement into a narrow instability axis that
extends across southeast CA into southern NV. Gusty winds are the
primary threat.
..Darrow.. 07/26/2021
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Mon, 26 Jul 2021 00:56:05 +0000
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