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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.07.21 19:02z 204 Lines 8143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2872_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210729/1730Z 2872@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
725 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
CORRECTED TO ADD PDS TEXT
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
parts of east-central Minnesota
much of Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 725 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant
gusts to 90 mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage over the next 1 to 2 hours, evolving into a large,
well-organized cluster/possible derecho while moving rapidly
southeastward.Along with potential for a few tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds are expected -- including a few significant gusts
possibly reaching 90 MPH locally.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Duluth MN to 40 miles northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30050.
...Goss
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 03:37:04 +0000
WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE STC TO
40 NNW MBL.
..BUNTING..07/29/21
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ARX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-043-065-191-290440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEECLAYTON FAYETTE
WINNESHIEK
MNC045-049-055-109-123-157-163-169-290440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FILLMORE GOODHUE HOUSTON
OLMSTEDRAMSEYWABASHA
WASHINGTONWINONA
WIC001-009-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-033-035-039-043-045-
047-049-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-071-073-077-079-081-087-089-
091-093-097-101-103-105-109-111-115-117-121-123-127-131-133-135-
137-139-141-290440-
WI
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 03:37:04 +0000
WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W OAJ TO
10 NW OAJ TO 10 SSW EWN TO 35 ESE EWN.
..BENTLEY..07/29/21
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC031-061-133-290140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTERET DUPLINONSLOW
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 00:14:05 +0000
MD 1381 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Areas affected...Western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...
Valid 290317Z - 290415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
continues.
SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for severe (potentially high
end) damaging winds across portions of western Wisconsin and eastern
Minnesota.
DISCUSSION...Recent KARX and KMPX radar trends show an increasing
area of strong winds in St. Croix county with hints of an increasing
rear inflow jet over the past few scans. Given the very unstable
downstream environment (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40 knots of flow at
1km from the KMPX VWP, the environment is primed for very strong
winds. Therefore, as this cluster moves southeast and matures,
hurricane force winds are likely. The current trajectory of this
cluster would bring the threat into portions of southeast Minnesota
which are not currently in watch 399. Therefore, after collaboration
with the local forecast office in La Crosse, Wisconsin, watch 399
will be expanded into southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa.
..Bentley.. 07/29/2021
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON45239264 45179212 44759158 44129127 43789128 43749147
43859200 44009249 44389291 45159302 45239264
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 03:18:03 +0000
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2021
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL AREA DESCRIPTION
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the state of
Wisconsin this evening and overnight...
* LOCATIONS...
Much of Wisconsin
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A few tornadoes
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Potentially widespread severe thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon through tonight along a corridor from
northeastern Minnesota across Wisconsin into southwest Lower
Michigan.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
..Hart.. 07/28/2021
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 02:01:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms with occasional significant severe wind
damage are expected this evening into tonight along a corridor from
northeastern Minnesota across Wisconsin to southwest Lower Michigan.
...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region...
As of early evening, robust surface-based thunderstorm initiation is
underway in several areas across the Upper Midwest including along a
cold front over northeast MN as well as along a pre-frontal boundary
across northwest WI. Storms are expected to increase in coverage
this evening over northern WI in response to an strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet coupled with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving southeast along the northern periphery of an upper
ridge. Some of the initial storms may exhibit supercell
characteristics given 45+ kt effective bulk shear and 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly
through mid-evening. However, storms should eventually congeal into
a forward-propagating MCS with line/bowing segments and spread
southeast along the instability gradient. Widespread damaging wind
(some significant) and possibly a few QLCS tornadoes should become
the main threats later this evening into the overnight.
..Dial.. 07/29/2021
Read more
Thu, 29 Jul 2021 01:10:12 +0000
+--------------------------- POWERSHELL WINDOWS ---------------------------+
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