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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.03.19 12:27z 124 Lines 6370 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20172_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 03
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<GB7YEW<VA3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 190317/1224Z 20172@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorm activity will remain
negligible across much of the nation today through tonight.
...Synopsis... Further amplification within a northern branch of
split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific appears
likely during this period. Models indicate upper ridging will
continue to build along an axis from the U.S. Pacific Northwest
through the far western Canadian Provinces, with an embedded high
evolving across/north of the Vancouver Island vicinity. Downstream,
positively tilted large-scale troughing is forecast to continue
digging across southeastern Canada and much of the U.S. to the east
of the Mississippi Valley.
The southern branch of mid-latitude westerlies, and the subtropical
stream, are expected to remain much more zonal and weaker, with the
most prominent embedded perturbations forecast to migrate eastward
near/just south of the Southwestern international border area,
and across/east of southern Baja.
The branches of westerlies will remain broadly confluent across and
east of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Plains. This is expected to
maintain generally high surface pressure across much of the nation to
the east of the Rockies, with mostly cool to cold and dry conditions
prevailing. Dry, stable conditions are also likely to persist across
much of the West, with little potential for thunderstorm activity.
...Southwest... Models do suggest that daytime heating beneath
relatively cool air aloft may again contribute to very weak
boundary-layer destabilization by late this afternoon, mainly near
the international border area, south through southeast of Tucson.
Convective development sufficiently strong to produce lightning
may not be entirely out of the question, but this seems likely to
be limited to an isolated weak cell or two.
...Florida... Light westerly low-level flow today appears likely to
focus stronger low-level convergence along southeast coastal areas
of the Peninsula, near/south of the slowly southward advancing
surface front, where weak to moderate CAPE may develop by this
afternoon. Coinciding with weak cooling aloft, inhibition may
weaken sufficiently to support an isolated thunderstorm or two
across the Greater Miami metro area.
..Kerr/Karstens.. 03/17/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216
AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms might occur over a portion
of central and southern Colorado late Monday afternoon into early
evening. No severe weather is expected.
...Central through southern Colorado...
Northern-stream shortwave trough will move southeast toward central
CO by late afternoon with 500 mb temperatures cooling to -20C which
combined with diabatic heating will result in weak (200-300 J/kg)
MUCAPE. Isolated convection is expected to develop over the higher
terrain and spread eastward. The thermodynamic environment might
become sufficient for at least a few lightning strikes into the
early evening.
...Elsewhere...
A large area of continental-polar high pressure will persist over
the eastern half of the U.S., maintaining offshore winds over the
Gulf and stable conditions inland.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 03/17/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the
eastern CONUS will remain quasi-stationary throughout the day, with
areas of enhanced 70+ kt mid-level flow orbiting the base of the
trough. Meanwhile, generally light mid-level flow will prevail across
much of the West. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across
most of the CONUS along with generally light surface winds. With
high pressure settled into the upper Great Basin, a modest surface
pressure gradient will become established across southern California
this morning and then again tomorrow night, albeit weaker. Offshore
flow associated with this feature is expected to remain generally
light, and in the presence of RH values remaining generally above
critical thresholds, the overall fire-weather concerns remain low.
..Karstens.. 03/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The large-scale eastern CONUS trough will begin to
slowly migrate eastward throughout the forecast period, while a weak
short-wave trough develops on the back side of this system across the
Northern Plains. Meanwhile another trough will begin approaching the
West Coast, but remain just offshore. Mid-level flow should remain
generally light across the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will
remain in control in most areas, along with generally light winds,
precluding the need for any fire-weather highlights at this time.
..Karstens.. 03/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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