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LU9DCE > ALERT 30.07.21 18:37z 68 Lines 3120 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2914_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210730/1830Z 2914@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 30 02:02:02 UTC
2021.
Fri, 30 Jul 2021 02:01:06 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind remain possible
mainly from the Ohio Valley westward into the middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains this evening. Other strong to severe
storms including potential for a tornado remain possible through 02Z
from southern New England southward to along a portion of the Middle
Atlantic coast.
...Ohio Valley through Middle Mississippi Valley and central
Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms continue developing
along and south of a cold front from the OH Valley westward through
southern NE. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft with up to 40 kt
effective bulk shear exists from WV through southern OH and IN where
the atmosphere remains moderately unstable, suggesting some storms
in this region will take on occasional organized structures.
Farther west, wind profiles become progressively weaker from the
northern MO into NE due to proximity of upper ridge. While
thermodynamic profiles exhibit large instability with up to 4000
J/kg MLCAPE, mid-level temperatures are warm resulting in weak to
modest lapse rates. Storms developing in this region this evening
will pose a risk for mainly isolated downburst winds. While some
severe threat may exist into the late evening, general tendency
should be for storms to undergo a gradual weakening trend after 03Z
as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
...Southern New England through the Middle Atlantic Coast...
A few strong to severe storms persist across coastal NJ as well as
farther north along a cold front across eastern NY into southern New
England. The storms across coastal NJ remain in a favorable shear
environment for low-level updraft rotation and possibly a brief
tornado or two. However this activity is in the process of moving
offshore.
Storms developing farther north along the cold front will continue
into southern New England where the atmosphere is only marginally
unstable. This activity may pose some risk for a few strong to
damaging gusts until about 03Z, but overall threat is expected to
remain limited due to the marginal thermodynamic environment.
..Dial.. 07/30/2021
Read more
Fri, 30 Jul 2021 01:08:27 +0000
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