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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.08.21 14:34z 110 Lines 4396 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3356_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210806/1430Z 3356@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 06 Aug 2021
02:36:01 +0000 Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:36:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 6 02:36:01 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Fri Aug 6 02:36:01 UTC 2021. Fri, 06
Aug 2021 02:35:06 +0000
SPC MD 1423 MD 1423 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHWEST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934
PM CDT Thu Aug 05 2021
Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota northwest Iowa and far
southwestern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060234Z - 060400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms with a history of severe hail may
continue to pose a risk for hail/damaging winds over the next few
hours. Storms should gradually weaken with time, diminishing the
severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, the cluster of strong/severe
thunderstorms in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota has
produced several reports of severe hail and strong wind gusts.
Contrary to earlier day model guidance, radar and satellite trends
suggest weakening of the storm cluster is evolving slower than
anticipated. Some severe threat in the form of hail and damaging wind
gusts will likely linger across portions of northwestern Iowa and far
southeastern South Dakota as storms continue to move south and east
over the next few hours. Despite boundary-layer cooling and increasing
inhibition, SPC mesoanalysis indicates a moderate unstable environment
(2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE) remains in place. Effective shear is
somewhat limited with regional VWPs indicating only 20-25 kts. Limited
vertical shear but favorable thermodynamics suggest a few organized
multicells and perhaps a supercell or two may persist for another few
hours before being overcome by increasing nocturnal inhibition. Until
then, severe hail and occasional damaging wind gusts will remain
possible with the strongest storms.
..Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43719727 43929670 43899575 43479488 42629463 42339490
42309573 42369625 42679668 43069727 43719727
Read more
Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:35:03 +0000
SPC Aug 6, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM
CDT Thu Aug 05 2021
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lingering wind gusts, and perhaps a marginal hail report, remain
possible this evening across parts of the Northwest and upper Midwest.
...01z Update...
Scattered thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal zone from the
Arrowhead of MN into extreme southeast SD. This activity is mostly
behind the short wave and is largely driven by boundary-layer heating
and low-level convergence near the front. Diurnal cooling should
result in weakening thunderstorms along this corridor in the next few
hours.
Seasonally strong short-wave trough is ejecting across northern CA
toward southeast OR. High-level diffluent flow and strong
boundary-layer heating remain conducive for scattered convection ahead
of this feature. Gusty winds remain possible with this high-based
convection for the next few hours then boundary-layer cooling should
limit updraft strength.
..Darrow.. 08/06/2021
Read more
Fri, 06 Aug 2021 00:34:29 +0000
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