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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.08.21 14:36z 279 Lines 10579 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3391_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 07-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210807/1430Z 3391@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sat, 07 Aug 2021
03:19:01 +0000 Sat, 07 Aug 2021 03:19:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 WW 411 SEVERE TSTM SD 070310Z
- 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 411 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Fri Aug 6
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1010 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail
events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over south-central South Dakota has
been producing gusty/damaging wind gusts for the past couple of hours.
These storms will track into the watch area with a continued risk for
severe wind gusts and perhaps hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of
Chamberlain SD to 50 miles east southeast of Mitchell SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Hart
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 03:10:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 WW 410 SEVERE TSTM SD 070020Z
- 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Fri Aug 6
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South Central South Dakota
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 720 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail
events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southwest South Dakota will
track eastward across the watch area this evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Philip SD to 70 miles northeast of Valentine NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 409...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Hart
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 02:24:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411 Status Reports WW 0411 Status
Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0411 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 03:10:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 Status Reports WW 0410 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE VTN TO 45 N
VTN TO 25 NE PHP.
..KERR..08/07/21
ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 410
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC017-075-085-123-070440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO JONES LYMAN TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 03:19:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 409 Status Reports WW 0409 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 409
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 409 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07/02Z.
..KERR..08/07/21
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 409
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC063-093-102-103-105-070200-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON
PERKINS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 01:23:05 +0000
SPC MD 1427 MD 1427 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
410... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909
PM CDT Fri Aug 06 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southern South Dakota and adjacent northern
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...
Valid 070209Z - 070415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 continues.
SUMMARY...Rapidly intensifying thunderstorm activity with increasing
organization and the potential to produce severe wind gusts appears
possible through 11 PM-1 AM CDT. Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of an additional severe weather watch east of WW 410.
DISCUSSION...Convection appears to have generated a fairly significant
surface cold pool, with 4-6 mb 2 hourly pressure rises evident in 01Z
surface observations at Rapid City, SD and Chadron, NE. As this cold
pool advances eastward along the remnant zone of stronger daytime
differential surface heating/boundary-layer mixing, thunderstorm
activity continues to increase and intensify along its leading edge.
This includes areas as far north as the Interstate 90 corridor, west
of Philip, SD, but strongest storm development may be maintained near
the southern flank of the cold pool, near the South Dakota/Nebraska
border vicinity. This is roughly along the northeastern edge of the
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, which
extends eastward into the Sioux Falls/Sioux City area of the mid
Missouri Valley.
During the past few hours, surface dew points have increased from
60-65F at Valentine, NE, where temperatures remain in the upper 80s F.
This has been aided by advection on easterly near surface flow, with
dew points as high as the lower/mid 70s at Yankton, SD and Sioux City,
IA, where the nose of a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level
jet (30-40 kt at 850) is forecast to become focused by 06Z.
As eastward advancing convection encounters increasingly moist inflow
characterized by large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, there appears
potential for substantive intensification and upscale growth. With
easterly low-level flow contributing to strong deep-layer shear on the
order of 40-50 kt, if this occurs, activity likely will become
increasingly organized with the risk for severe wind gusts increasing
once again, aided by steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.
..Kerr.. 08/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44000070 44259959 44309759 44119690 43549667 42549711
42669814 42789904 42790012 42930051 43490083 44000070
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 02:10:03 +0000
SPC Aug 7, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM
CDT Fri Aug 06 2021
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong wind gusts -- locally in excess of 60 MPH -- will be possible
this evening across parts of South Dakota and vicinity.
...Discussion...
A gradual decrease in convective intensity is noted at this time
across most portions of the country, coincident with the onset of
diurnal low-level cooling/stabilization. An exception is with storms
residing over the southwestern South Dakota/northwestern Nebraska
border area, where an organized band of storms capable of producing
locally damaging winds is ongoing.
The storms are occurring within an environment featuring a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer, with evaporative effects enhancing
local wind gust potential. Downstream, a more moist/unstable
low-level airmass is observed, and as a 40-plus kt low-level jet
evolves over the next few hours, storm continuation appears likely.
In addition, it appears at least possible that more substantial cold
pool evolution, and subsequent upscale growth of this convection into
at least a loosely organized MCS, may occur in tandem with increasing
QG-induced ascent across the region. Therefore, slight risk/15% hail
potential is being expanded eastward across parts of central and
eastern South Dakota and vicinity, to highlight this potential.
..Goss.. 08/07/2021
Read more
Sat, 07 Aug 2021 00:58:28 +0000
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