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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.08.21 18:09z 105 Lines 4079 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2594_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-JUL.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IK7IJR<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PE1RRR<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210723/1331Z 2594@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us
None spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 23 Jul 2021
03:25:02 +0000 Fri, 23 Jul 2021 03:25:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 23 03:25:02 UTC
2021 No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 23 03:25:02 UTC 2021.
Fri, 23 Jul 2021 03:24:07 +0000
SPC MD 1330 MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
386... FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021
Areas affected...northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...
Valid 230204Z - 230400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
continues.
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts remain possible across eastern parts
of WW 386, and storms may affect extreme northwestern North Dakota.
However, additional watches are unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with a history of measured severe
gusts continues to rapidly progress across northeast MT, and will
likely affect a small portion of ND. While temperatures are cooler
downstream of these storms, greater boundary-layer moisture content
yields higher MLCAPE values per objective analysis, and effective
shear remains favorable at 40+ kt.
Given only a small threat area in time and space east of WW 386,
another watch is unlikely. Isolated wind damage remains the primary
concern, but hail cannot be ruled out if storms can utilize the
better moisture prior to capping increasing too much.
..Jewell.. 07/23/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 48120272 47660572 47640629 47880643 48330615 49030609
49000227 48120272
Read more
Fri, 23 Jul 2021 02:05:03 +0000
SPC Jul 23, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z
Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740
PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible early tonight
from parts of northeast Montana into extreme northwest North Dakota.
...Northern High Plains...
Weak mid-level disturbance ejected across northeast NV/eastern ID
which aided convective initiation over southern MT/northeast WY
earlier this afternoon. This feature is now translating downstream
across central MT and is partly responsible for the strong, small
cluster of thunderstorms in the GGW area. Over the last half hour
or so, a developing squall line, with some bow-like characteristics
appears to be evolving. 00z sounding from GGW exhibited around 1300
J/kg MLCAPE with nearly 50kt surface-6km shear, more than adequate
for organized/upscale growth. This cluster of storms will likely
remain organized as it spreads across northeast MT into extreme
northwest ND, before progressing into southeast SK.
...AZ...
A reservoir of yet-to-be overturned air resides along the
international border west of Tucson. Isolated gusty winds may
accompany this convection, along with the strong storms migrating
southwest off the higher terrain. Loss of heating should negatively
impact this activity.
..Darrow.. 07/23/2021
Read more
Fri, 23 Jul 2021 00:44:53 +0000
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