| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 10.08.21 14:46z 320 Lines 12626 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3555_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210810/1431Z 3555@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 10 Aug 2021
03:34:02 +0000 Tue, 10 Aug 2021 03:34:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 WW 418 SEVERE TSTM MN ND
092055Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Aug 9
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme northwestern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected this afternoon across
central North Dakota, and storms will subsequently spread eastward
toward the Minnesota border toward late evening. A mix of supercells
and storm clusters are expected, with the potential for isolated very
large hail near 2.5 inch diameter, severe outflow winds near 70 mph,
and a tornado or two.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of
Hallock MN to 75 miles south southeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Thompson
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 03:33:04 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 417 WW 417 TORNADO IL IN LM 091940Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 417 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Illinois Extreme northwestern Indiana Lake Michigan
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop in clusters or short
bands across northern Illinois this afternoon, and storms will spread
east-southeastward through late evening. The storm environment favors
a mix of clusters and embedded supercells capable of producing a
couple of tornadoes, damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, and isolated
large hail of 1 to 1.5 inch diameter.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Rockford IL to 85
miles east of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to
60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 30025.
...Thompson
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:30:04 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 Status Reports WW 0418 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 418 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO 04Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456.
..KERR..08/10/21
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC069-089-107-119-100400-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KITTSON MARSHALL NORMAN POLK
NDC035-067-091-097-099-100400-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAND FORKS PEMBINA STEELE TRAILL
WALSH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 03:33:05 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 417 Status Reports WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PIA TO 20
NNE MMO TO 45 WNW VPZ TO 10 N VPZ.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 417 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10/03Z.
..KERR..08/10/21
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 417
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-063-091-093-099-155-197-100300-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU GRUNDY KANKAKEE KENDALL
LA SALLE PUTNAM WILL
INC073-089-111-127-100300-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER
LMZ743-744-745-100300-
CW
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:30:05 +0000
SPC MD 1456 MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
418... FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952
PM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021
Areas affected...eastern north Dakota northwestern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...
Valid 100252Z - 100415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues.
SUMMARY...Additional storm development across WW418 will likely
continue tonight as the main band of convection continues eastward.
Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats though a tornado
cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front across eastern North Dakota a band
of deep convection a couple of supercells continue to pose a risk for
severe weather. Recent radar trends suggest additional storm
development taking place along the cold front will continue as deep
ascent from an upper trough over the northern Plains continues
eastward. As nocturnal stabilization progresses, cold pool development
may favor a more linear storm mode supportive of damaging wind gusts
as storms approach the Minnesota border. Latest HRRR guidance supports
this showing additional storm development south and east of the main
band merging into a more linear configuration.
Ahead of the main band of storms, a likely tornadic supercell in the
vicinity of Grand Forks has been able to remain isolated as it tracks
along a warm frontal zone. Enhanced helicity (200-300 m2/s2 ESRH)
owing to backed surface flow along the front may continue to support a
tornado threat over the next hour or so before nocturnal inhibition
increases substantially hindering low-level mesocyclone maintenance.
As storms approach the eastern edge of WW418 expiring at 0400z, a
general decrease in severe potential is expected. While some severe
risk may exist to the east of the current watch, a downstream watch
appears unlikely given an increasingly stable boundary layer.
Nevertheless, local watch extensions across northeastern North Dakota
and northwestern Minnesota are possible.
..Lyons/Hart.. 08/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47299870 48419915 49009899 49129785 49099649 48999592
48799558 48369535 47859532 47519556 47319600 47179689
47069759 47299870
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:53:03 +0000
SPC Aug 10, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM
CDT Mon Aug 09 2021
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are still expected this evening into tonight over parts
of the northern Plains and southern Great Lakes states. Large hail and
wind damage will be the primary threat in the northern Plains. Wind
damage, hail will be possible across parts of northeast Illinois and
northwest Indiana.
...Southern Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery is currently located
across from upper Michigan into eastern Wisconsin. At the surface, a
low is located in southeast Wisconsin with a cold front extending
southwestward across northern Illinois. Ahead of the front, a very
moist airmass is in place, with surface dewpoints generally from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s F. This is contributing to a moderately to
strongly unstable airmass across much of Illinois. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the front along the northern
part of the instability axis from north-central Illinois to the
Chicago Metro. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Chicago has 0-6 km shear
near 40 kt with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This
wind shear will continue to support supercells with isolated large
hail and wind damage. The severe threat should continue through much
of the evening as a line of strong to severe storms moves eastward
into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan.
...Northern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
northern High Plains with southwest mid-level flow located over much
of the northern Plains. At the surface, a sharply defined cold front
is moving southeastward across eastern North Dakota and central South
Dakota, with surface low located in southeastern North Dakota.
Instability is maximized ahead of the front across eastern South
Dakota and southeastern North Dakota, with surface dewpoints generally
in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the
front and surface low where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range. This is consistent with the Aberdeen 00Z sounding
which has a mid-level lapse rate near 8.5 C/km. This combined with 35
to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear will be favorable for supercells with large
hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with
the more dominant supercell updrafts. Wind damage will also be
possible with supercells and with the more organized multicell line
segments. The severe threat may persist through the late evening as a
cluster of storms moves eastward into northwestern Minnesota.
...Central Plains...
An upper-level trough is analyzed across the northern High Plains and
central Rockies according to water vapor imagery. At the surface, a
cold front is located in central Nebraska with dewpoints ahead of the
front generally in the lower to mid 70s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability across southern and central Nebraska.
Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front from the vicinity of McCook
northeastward to near Lexington, Nebraska. The North Platte 00Z
sounding has 0-6 km shear near 25 kt with a very steep lapse rates
from the surface to 500 mb. This combined with the moderate
instability will support a marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail will be possible with high-based thunderstorms for
a couple more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/10/2021
Read more
Tue, 10 Aug 2021 01:05:37 +0000
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
--------->>> PRIMER BBS EN FREEBSD
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
