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LU9DCE > ALERT 11.08.21 14:43z 289 Lines 10727 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3595_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<W9GM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210811/1430Z 3595@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Wed, 11 Aug 2021
03:57:02 +0000 Wed, 11 Aug 2021 03:57:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421 WW 421 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH
LM 110040Z - 110700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 PM EDT Tue Aug 10
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeastern Illinois Northern Indiana Western and central Lower
Michigan Extreme northwestern Ohio Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 840 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An organized complex of thunderstorms, with a history of
measured severe gusts in IL and WI, will continue to pose a
damaging-wind threat across Lake Michigan and into parts of MI and
northern IN before weakening tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of
South Bend IN to 15 miles west northwest of Traverse City MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 419...WW 420...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Edwards
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 03:56:02 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421 Status Reports WW 0421 Status
Updates
110540-
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SBN TO 15 SW
JXN TO 25 W MBS TO 30 N HTL.
..KERR..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC033-039-049-085-087-099-113-131-151-110540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DE KALB ELKHART FULTON KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE MARSHALL NOBLE PULASKI
STEUBEN
MIC023-035-037-039-045-057-059-065-073-075-143-110540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANCH CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD
EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM
ISABELLA JACKSON ROSCOMMON
OHC171-110540-
OH
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 03:56:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420 Status Reports WW 0420 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MMO TO 30
ENE GRB.
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LMZ542-110240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 01:49:05 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419 Status Reports WW 0419 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BRL TO 10
E MLI.
WW 419 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110100Z.
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC071-187-110100-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HENDERSON WARREN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 00:31:04 +0000
SPC MD 1469 MD 1469 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
421... FOR MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957
PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Areas affected...Much of lower Michigan and adjacent portions of
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...
Valid 110257Z - 110430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421 continues.
SUMMARY...A generally weakening line of thunderstorms may continue to
be accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts across much of
the remainder of lower Michigan and adjacent portions of northern
Indiana and northwestern Ohio by 1-2 AM EDT. It is not yet certain
that this will require an additional severe weather watch across
eastern lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio, but trends are being
monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Substantial weakening has occurred to the ongoing
convective system as it crossed Lake Michigan, and the temperature
differential across the leading edge of the eastward advancing surface
outflow is diminishing in a less strongly heated and slowly cooling
boundary layer across lower Michigan. However, at least a narrow
corridor of mid/upper 70s F surface dew points is returning northward
ahead of line, across the Battle Creek and Lansing vicinities. And
there are still areas of 50+ kt rear inflow still evident.
At its current 45-50 kt forward propagation, the convective system, or
its remnants, will overspread much of the remainder of lower Michigan
and adjacent northwestern Ohio by 05-06Z. It remains unclear whether
there will be significant re-intensification of convection, but the
best chance for this may be along a zone of enhanced low-level warm
advection preceding the convection, roughly across the Houghton Lake,
Saginaw, Flint vicinities. Regardless, the gust front may remain
capable of producing strong to locally severe wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 08/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
LAT...LON 40958739 41368613 42328530 43588562 44598578 45328553
45508358 44578267 43478246 42078247 41088378 40728590
40958739
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:58:03 +0000
SPC Aug 11, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM
CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail
will be possible this evening across parts of the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Marginally severe winds will also be possible from parts
of the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with a few strong gusts
also possible across the Mid-Atlantic.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery from near the
Arrowhead of Minnesota extending southward into far eastern Iowa. An
MCS is ongoing ahead of the shortwave trough from far eastern
Wisconsin into northeast Illinois. The MCS is located along an axis of
strong instability, analyzed by the RAP just to the west of Lake
Michigan, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range.
Concerning the wind shear, the WSR-88D VWP at Milwaukee and Chicago
both have 0-6 km shear near 20 kt with most of the speed shear with
the lowest one kilometer above ground level. This combined with very
steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for damaging wind gusts
along the leading edge of the stronger multicells. Isolated large hail
could also occur. The wind-damage threat should be greatest over the
next hour before the line of storms moves over Lake Michigan. A severe
threat is expected to continue this evening as the MCS moves into
southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Indiana but should be more
isolated due to weaker instability in those areas...see MCD 1468 and
WW 421.
...Central Plains...
A pattern with broad cyclonic mid-level flow is currently located
across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
is analyzed from the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into Iowa along
which moderate to strong instability is present. Isolated
thunderstorms have developed early this evening along the instability
axis where low-level convergence is enhanced, from far eastern
Colorado into central Kansas. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized across
north-central Kansas where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg.
This combined with 20 to 30 kt of deep-layer shear and very steep
low-level lapse rates should be favorable for a marginal wind-damage
threat. Hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts. The severe
threat may persist for a couple more hours before instability weakens
substantially across the region.
...Mid-Atlantic...
The latest surface analysis shows an ill-defined trough from central
Pennsylvania southward into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass is
located to the east of the trough with surface dewpoints in the lower
to mid 70s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed to the east
of the surface trough where isolated strong thunderstorms are ongoing.
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range along with steep low-level lapse
rates may be enough for a few marginally severe gusts early this
evening.
..Broyles.. 08/11/2021
Read more
Wed, 11 Aug 2021 01:00:50 +0000
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