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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.08.21 14:37z 389 Lines 12908 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3645_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210812/1430Z 3645@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 12 Aug 2021
03:45:02 +0000 Thu, 12 Aug 2021 03:45:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 WW 430 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI LM
120120Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Wed Aug 11
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
parts of northern Illinois northern Indiana parts of southern Lower
Michigan Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 820 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail
events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over the
next couple of hours across the watch area, with the stronger storms
capable of producing wind gusts to severe levels, as well as hail in
excess of 1" in diameter through the evening hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Rockford IL to 25 miles southeast of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Goss
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 02:20:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 Status Reports WW 0430 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..08/12/21
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...IWX...GRR...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-031-037-043-063-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-155-197-
120340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE
LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY
PUTNAM WILL
INC039-049-073-085-087-089-091-099-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-
183-120340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELKHART FULTON JASPER KOSCIUSKO
LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL
NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH
STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 02:20:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 429 Status Reports WW 0429 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ZZV TO 25 S
CAK TO 20 NNW YNG TO 30 NNW ERI.
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-099-111-121-155-112340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY
HARRISON JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE
NOBLE TRUMBULL
PAC039-049-073-085-121-112340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD ERIE LAWRENCE MERCER
VENANGO
LEZ149-169-112340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:07 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428 Status Reports WW 0428 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE MBL TO 25
W APN TO 45 ENE APN.
..DEAN..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...APX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC001-007-011-039-051-069-079-113-119-129-135-143-165-120040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCONA ALPENA ARENAC CRAWFORD
GLADWIN IOSCO KALKASKA MISSAUKEE
MONTMORENCY OGEMAW OSCODA ROSCOMMON WEXFORD
LHZ348-349-362-363-LMZ362-120040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC
BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5NM
OFFSHORE
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:09 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427 Status Reports WW 0427 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ILG TO 30
SSW MSV.
WW 427 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120100Z.
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NJC007-011-015-019-021-041-120100-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON
MERCER WARREN
PAC017-045-095-101-120100-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCKS DELAWARE NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:10 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 Status Reports WW 0426 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE DAY TO 25
W MFD TO 40 W CLE TO 45 ESE DTW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...DTX...CLE...ILN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OHC005-035-041-049-075-083-089-093-097-103-117-139-169-112240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FRANKLIN
HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN
MADISON MEDINA MORROW RICHLAND WAYNE
LEZ145-146-165-166-112240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:12 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425 Status Reports WW 0425 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DAN TO 30
SSE CHO TO 40 SSW DCA TO 15 S BWI TO 30 W ILG.
..LYONS..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 425
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC015-120040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CECIL
VAC007-025-036-041-053-057-087-097-101-111-117-127-135-145-149-
159-193-570-670-730-760-120040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA BRUNSWICK CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD
DINWIDDIE ESSEX HENRICO KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NEW KENT
NOTTOWAY POWHATAN PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND
WESTMORELAND
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS HOPEWELL PETERSBURG
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:13 +0000
SPC Tornado Watch 424 Status Reports WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DBQ TO 20
W MSN TO 20 NW MKE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
..DEAN..08/11/21
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC025-045-049-055-065-105-120040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANE GREEN IOWA JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE ROCK
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 00:00:14 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Aug 12 03:45:14 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 12
03:45:14 UTC 2021. Thu, 12 Aug 2021 03:45:05 +0000
SPC Aug 12, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM
CDT Wed Aug 11 2021
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage, hail and an isolated
tornado threat will be possible this evening across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. Marginally severe
storms with strong wind gusts will be possible from parts of the upper
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad cyclonic flow pattern
across the north-central states and Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a cold front is advancing eastward across Wisconsin. A moist
air mass is located ahead of the front from southeast Iowa into
northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin and Iowa. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to
strong instability across much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing ahead of the front from far eastern Iowa to western Lower
Michigan. This activity will continue to move eastward this evening
and will likely be accompanied with a severe threat. Regional WSR-88D
VWPs across the southern Great Lakes region have moderate deep-layer
shear with some directional shear in the boundary layer and speed
shear in the low to mid-levels. This will continue to be supportive a
severe threat with a potential for wind damage and isolated large
hail. Although a wind-damage threat will likely continue across parts
of the south lower Michigan this evening, the severe threat coverage
is expected too sparse to maintain the Enhanced Risk...see MCD 1491.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/Central North Carolina...
West-southwest mid-level flow is located across much of the
northeastern U.S. this evening. A shortwave trough appears to be
located in the central Appalachians near a north-to-south band of
convection. As this band of convection moves eastward across western
and central Pennsylvania this evening, a marginal wind-damage threat
will be possible. A second area of convection is ongoing from eastern
Virginia north-northeastward into New Jersey. This convection is
located along an axis of moderate to strong instability where MLCAPE
is estimated in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range according to the RAP.
Although deep-layer shear is weak along this corridor, low-level lapse
rates are steep. This will continue to be favorable for isolated
strong wind gusts for a few more hours this evening.
...Central Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a broad plume of mid-level
moisture located from the southern Rockies into parts of the southern
and central Plains. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast oriented
trough is located across Kansas and northwest Missouri. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the surface trough, with the
greatest coverage in southwest Kansas. Surface dewpoints south of the
trough are generally in the 60s F, which is contributing to moderate
instability. This combined with steep lapse rates in the boundary
layer will continue to support a marginal wind-damage threat for a few
more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/12/2021
Read more
Thu, 12 Aug 2021 01:07:35 +0000
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