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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.08.21 15:37z 118 Lines 4945 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3940_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210816/1531Z 3940@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 16 Aug 2021
03:52:01 +0000 Mon, 16 Aug 2021 03:52:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 16 03:52:01 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Mon Aug 16 03:52:01 UTC 2021. Mon, 16
Aug 2021 03:51:06 +0000
SPC MD 1530 MD 1530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
Mesoscale Discussion 1530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050
PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Areas affected...south-central AZ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160350Z - 160445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may continue as a thunderstorm
cluster moves to the west-southwest from eastern AZ and approaches the
greater Phoenix metro over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KPHX shows a cluster of intense
thunderstorms in a relatively optimized balance for renewed
thunderstorm development on surging outflow. The 00z Phoenix raob
showed relatively steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Surface cooling
has been tempered this evening due to rich low-level moisture (14 g/kg
lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio)---limiting the lessening of low-level
lapse rates. Furthermore, the 25-kt flow in the 3-6 km layer per the
raob will support storm movement to the west-southwest and perhaps
augment wind potential with evaporative cooling. As a result, it is
plausible severe gusts move into the eastern part of the Phoenix metro
during the next 1-2 hours as this activity continues
west-southwestward before eventually weakening.
..Smith/Bunting.. 08/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33681227 33951101 33111037 32681146 32941226 33681227
Read more
Mon, 16 Aug 2021 03:51:03 +0000
SPC Aug 16, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM
CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this evening
into tonight over portions of the central Plains and Florida Gulf
Coast.
...Central Plains...
A widely spaced pair of supercells over KS produced multiple severe
hail and wind reports over the past couple of hours, but they have
recently weakened quite rapidly. North-northwesterly mid-level flow
and a veering low-level wind profile should continue to foster around
30-35 kt of effective bulk shear, supportive of updraft organization.
It remains uncertain how much farther south any storms will develop
across KS this evening, as convective inhibition will gradually
increase with the loss of daytime heating. Regardless, an isolated
threat for large hail and severe wind gusts may continue in the short
term with any storm that can be sustained. An isolated strong/gusty
wind threat may also persist with loosely organized clusters of storms
across east-central into southeastern CO and vicinity where a very
well mixed boundary layer exists. Additional convective development
along a low-level moist axis into parts of western NE appears highly
uncertain owing to nebulous forcing for ascent aloft. Still, this area
will experience a modestly strengthening southerly low-level jet this
evening, and any storms that do form may pose an isolated hail/wind
threat.
...Florida...
Tropical Storm Fred is forecast by the NHC to move generally northward
this evening/tonight across the eastern Gulf of Mexico while gradually
strengthening. Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest that
the enhanced low/mid-level flow in the eastern half of Fred's
circulation will continue to remain mostly displaced offshore through
the end of the period. Even so, an isolated strong wind gust and/or
brief tornado cannot be ruled out in an outer rain band given some
modest low-level flow and related shear along parts of the immediate
FL Gulf Coast (see 00Z TBW sounding).
..Gleason.. 08/16/2021
Read more
Mon, 16 Aug 2021 00:52:37 +0000
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