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LU9DCE > ALERT 22.08.21 16:04z 90 Lines 4104 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4165_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 210822/1530Z 4165@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 22 Aug 2021
00:59:02 +0000 Sun, 22 Aug 2021 00:59:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 22 00:59:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Sun Aug 22 00:59:02 UTC 2021. Sun, 22
Aug 2021 00:58:10 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Aug 22 00:59:02 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 22
00:59:02 UTC 2021. Sun, 22 Aug 2021 00:58:09 +0000
SPC Aug 22, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM
CDT Sat Aug 21 2021
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts
of the southern Plains, Tennessee Valley, South Carolina and the
Intermountain West
...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level ridge over the
western Ozarks, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending
northeastward from west Texas into western Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume. The storms are located
along the west and north side of a pocket of strong instability
according to the RAP. Although deep-layer shear is relatively weak,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This could be enough for a marginal
wind damage threat early this evening. The strong instability also
could be enough for hail with the better organized updrafts.
...Tennessee Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow in place
from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A corridor of
maximized instability is present from southern Arkansas into middle
Tennessee where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F. This is
contributing to moderate instability according to the RAP. Although
deep-layer shear is only around 20 kts, low-level lapse rates are
steep. This could be enough for a marginal wind damage threat over the
next hour with storms located in the stronger instability.
...South Carolina...
An upper-level low is currently analyzed in parts of the central
Appalachians. The airmass beneath the low is moist with surface
dewpoints generally ranging from the upper 60s in the higher terrain
to the mid 70s F over the Atlantic coastal Plains. The strongest
instability is located across southern South Carolina where the RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with
20 to 25 kt of deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will
make strong wind gusts possible over the next hour.
...Intermountain West...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
Intermountain West. Ahead of the trough, a pocket of instability is
present from northern Utah into southwest Wyoming. Although
instability is weak across the Intermountain West, regional WSR-88D
VWPs suggest that 0-6 km shear is in the 40 to 50 kt range. This could
be enough to enable a few storms to reach marginally severe criteria.
Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 08/22/2021
Read more
Sun, 22 Aug 2021 00:57:53 +0000
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