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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.08.21 15:33z 89 Lines 4332 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4205_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 210823/1531Z 4205@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Mon, 23 Aug 2021
03:02:02 +0000 Mon, 23 Aug 2021 03:02:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 23 03:02:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Mon Aug 23 03:02:02 UTC 2021. Mon, 23
Aug 2021 03:01:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Aug 23 03:02:02 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 23
03:02:02 UTC 2021. Mon, 23 Aug 2021 03:01:06 +0000
SPC Aug 23, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM
CDT Sun Aug 22 2021
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the
central and northern Plains this evening. A threat for large hail and
wind damage will likely accompany the stronger storms. An isolated
tornado threat will also exist across parts of eastern South Dakota.
...Northern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough and an associated 45 to 60 kt
mid-level jet are located across the northern Plains according to
water vapor imagery. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from
Kansas northward into the eastern Dakotas. The RAP is analyzing a
corridor of moderate to strong instability along the moist axis, with
MLCAPE across eastern South Dakota estimated to be from 1500 to 3000
J/kg. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along this corridor
of instability. In addition to the instability, deep-layer shear is
strong across the northern Plains. The WSR-88D VWP at Aberdeen
currently has 0-6 km shear near 60 kt, with veering winds with height
in the lowest kilometer. This wind profile will be favorable for
supercells this evening. Low-level shear will continue to increase
this evening helping to maintain a tornado threat across eastern South
Dakota for a few more hours. Supercells will also be capable of large
hail and wind damage.
Moderate instability is also present in eastern North Dakota where the
RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing in eastern North Dakota
along the eastern edge of the stronger instability. This combined
with strong deep-layer shear, associated with a mid-level speed max,
will continue to be favorable for supercells associated with large
hail and wind damage. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible
for another hour or so. The severe threat is expected to impact
western Minnesota later this evening but weaker instability further
east will make the severe threat more isolated.
Further to the south into east-central Nebraska, a pocket of strong
instability is analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000
J/kg range. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
along the southern side of the stronger instability, from the vicinity
of Grand Island southward to near the Kansas state-line. The WSR-88D
VWP just to the east of the storm cluster has 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
and veering winds with height in the lowest 2 kilometers. This will be
favorable for supercells this evening, with a threat for large hail
and wind damage. An isolated severe threat could impact part of the
mid Missouri Valley later this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/23/2021
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Mon, 23 Aug 2021 01:06:33 +0000
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