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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.08.21 17:48z 266 Lines 10790 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4250_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 210824/1530Z 4250@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 24 Aug 2021
03:17:01 +0000 Tue, 24 Aug 2021 03:17:01 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 WW 459 SEVERE TSTM ND SD
240310Z - 240800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Mon Aug
23 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast North Dakota Northcentral and northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1010 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move east through the early morning hours
and pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Mobridge SD to 40 miles north northeast of Watertown SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030.
...Bunting
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 03:10:07 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 WW 458 SEVERE TSTM SD 232220Z
- 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Mon Aug 23
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southcentral and southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 520 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop and move east across the
watch area through this evening with a risk for very large hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west of
Chamberlain SD to 25 miles east of Mitchell SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025.
...Bunting
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 01:31:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 Status Reports WW 0459 Status
Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0459 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 03:10:09 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 Status Reports WW 0458 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
..MOORE..08/24/21
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-009-015-017-023-035-043-053-061-065-067-073-075-085-095-
097-111-117-121-123-240240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON JERAULD JONES
LYMAN MELLETTE MINER SANBORN
STANLEY TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 01:31:03 +0000
SPC MD 1584 MD 1584 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
458... FOR SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937
PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021
Areas affected...South Dakota into far southern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...
Valid 240237Z - 240430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe risk will reside along the
ND/SD border over the next 1-2 hours. The environment remains
favorable for strong to severe storms across WW 458, but the threat is
becoming more conditional.
DISCUSSION...Prior convection across the western portion of WW 458 has
shown a steady weakening trend over the past hour. This is likely the
result of diurnally increasing inhibition on the fringe of better
ascent to the north/northwest. The probability of new convection
developing over south-central SD appears to be diminishing, and WW 458
may be canceled early due to this decreasing potential. However, the
environment remains conditionally favorable for organized storms with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear.
Convection initiating along a dryline across the NE Panhandle may
propagate into this environment and intensify in the coming hours, but
confidence in this scenario is sufficiently low to warrant watch
cancellation.
Along the ND/SD border, strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
within a theta-e advection maxima in the 925-850 mb layer. The
environment along the ND/SD border should remain favorable for
organized convection over the coming hours thanks to continued
moisture advection into the region and persistent strong flow aloft.
Latest short-term guidance suggests this zone of ascent should reside
within this environment at least for the next 1-2 hours before
shifting northward into central ND where thermodynamic profiles are
less favorable.
..Moore.. 08/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43050030 43940100 44830157 45520168 46070140 46280061
46179961 45629894 44809814 43899793 43209775 42849820
42769939 43050030
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 02:38:03 +0000
SPC Aug 24, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Mon Aug 23 2021
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...
CORRECTED FOR NDFD WIND GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong severe thunderstorms will move across parts of the
northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley this evening into
tonight. Isolated large hail will be the primary threat although a few
strong wind gusts could occur.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west to southwest mid-level flow
across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a 1001 mb low is located
in southeast Montana with backed east to southeasterly flow located
across much of the northern Plains. A surface trough extending
southeastward across western South Dakota. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the surface trough in central
South Dakota. This activity is forecast to gradually expand in
coverage, moving eastward across eastern South Dakota and may impact
parts of southwest and central Minnesota later tonight.
The RAP is currently showing moderate to strong instability across
parts of the central and southeastern South Dakota, with MLCAPE
estimated to be in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. However, some capping
is present across the area. In spite of the cap, a 50 to 60 kt
low-level jet will likely provide the lift necessary for continued
thunderstorm development this evening. In addition to the instability,
the RAP is showing effective shear in the 45 to 55 kt range and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km suggesting that a supercell
threat will continue this evening. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches
will be possible across parts of the central South Dakota over the
next couple of hours. An isolated large hail threat could develop
further to the east across parts of eastern South Dakota.
Further to the north across North Dakota, weak instability is present.
However, the low-level jet will result in strong moisture advection.
This will help instability to increase late this evening into the
overnight period. Thunderstorm development should take place near the
axis of the low-level jet, and spread east-northeastward across
central and eastern North Dakota after midnight. RAP forecast
soundings across central North Dakota after midnight increase MUCAPE
into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The soundings also show steep lapse
rates and 40 to 50 kt of effective shear. Although a sharp low-level
temperature inversion will be present, the shear and instability
should be enough to support an elevated supercell development. Hail
would be the primary threat.
..Broyles.. 08/24/2021
Read more
Tue, 24 Aug 2021 01:21:28 +0000
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