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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.08.21 15:30z 90 Lines 4218 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4334_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 26-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210826/1530Z 4334@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Thu, 26 Aug 2021
01:08:02 +0000 Thu, 26 Aug 2021 01:08:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 26 01:08:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Thu Aug 26 01:08:02 UTC 2021. Thu, 26
Aug 2021 01:07:07 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Aug 26 01:08:02 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 26
01:08:02 UTC 2021. Thu, 26 Aug 2021 01:07:06 +0000
SPC Aug 26, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM
CDT Wed Aug 25 2021
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple strong to potentially severe storms may develop tonight
across portions of the northern Plains, with damaging gusts and large
hail the main threats.
...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging dominates much of the central/eastern U.S. this
evening as a mid-level trough across the Inter-mountain West gradually
approaches the northern Plains. Diurnally driven pulse convective
cells (some occasionally producing strong surface gusts) continue
along the upper ridge axis across the central/eastern CONUS, and are
expected to wane in coverage and intensity through this evening.
However, a nocturnally driven low-level jet is expected to develop
across the Plains states, that coupled with a mid-level impulse
emanating from the northern Rockies, will support an increase in storm
coverage/intensity later tonight over the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
A mid-level impulse embedded in the larger-scale 500 mb trough is
currently traversing the northern Rockies (per latest water vapor
imagery) and is poised to eject into the northern Plains over the next
few hours. A nocturnal low-level jet is currently developing across
the central Plains (20-25 kt 850 mb southeasterly flow noted in the
LBF/UNR 00Z observed soundings) and will continue strengthening
through the night. Warm-air advection/low-level convergence at the
nose of the low-level jet overspread by the approaching mid-level
impulse will promote adequate deep-layer ascent for convective
initiation across the northern Plains, especially after 06Z. Observed
and RAP forecast soundings both suggest that convection will be rooted
above 850 mb, but given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (UNR/LBF 00Z
observed soundings), ample instability will support large hail with
initial updrafts, and damaging gusts with any upscale-growing
clusters. These clusters are expected to develop into at least one or
more MCSs near the 12Z time frame, serving as the impetus for severe
potential for the current Day 2 period.
...Central IL Vicinity...
While a couple stronger pulse-cellular storms remain, weak deep-layer
flow has allowed for the earlier organized MCS to become highly
outflow dominant, with little in the way of convective development
along the leading line of the cold pool. While a brief flare up in
convective intensity and potential for a strong/damaging gust cannot
be completely ruled out over the next few hours, nocturnal cooling
should contribute to an overall weakening trend, with severe coverage
too low to warrant any probabilities.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 08/26/2021
Read more
Thu, 26 Aug 2021 01:04:26 +0000
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