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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.08.21 15:37z 203 Lines 8161 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4382_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 27-AGO.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<KD8FMR<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 210827/1531Z 4382@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.21
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 27 Aug 2021
03:48:02 +0000 Fri, 27 Aug 2021 03:48:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464 WW 464 SEVERE TSTM NE SD
270100Z - 270800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Thu Aug 26
2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Nebraska Southern South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
coverage this evening and pose a risk for damaging winds and large
hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Chadron NE to 20 miles northeast of Yankton SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64
KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable
for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in
these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather
conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2
inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030.
...Bunting
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Fri, 27 Aug 2021 02:08:03 +0000
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464 Status Reports WW 0464 Status
Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..08/27/21
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-043-051-071-075-089-091-103-107-
115-119-139-149-161-167-171-179-183-270340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD
BROWN CEDAR CHERRY DAKOTA
DIXON GARFIELD GRANT HOLT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA KNOX LOUP MADISON
PIERCE ROCK SHERIDAN STANTON THOMAS
WAYNE WHEELER
SDC003-005-007-009-011-015-017-023-027-033-035-043-053-055-059-
061-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-093-095-097-099-
101-102-103-111-117-119-121-123-125-127-135-270340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BENNETT BON HOMME
BROOKINGS BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
CLAY
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Fri, 27 Aug 2021 02:08:03 +0000
SPC MD 1615 MD 1615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045
PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Areas affected...portions of southern MN and northern IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 270345Z - 270545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms producing locally
strong gusts and hail are possible into the early overnight period
across parts of southern MN into northern IA.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection has developed across far
southern MN into far northern IA late this evening. This activity is
to the north of a west-to-east oriented stationary surface boundary
extending across northern IA. This activity has intensified recently
as warm advection increases across the region as a southerly low level
jet has strengthened over the mid-MO valley vicinity. Strong
inhibition exists, especially north of the boundary, but moderate
instability amid steep midlevel lapse rates and effective shear
greater than 35 kt is aiding in organized clusters. Hail and locally
strong gusts could accompany this activity into the early overnight
period. However, the elevated nature of convection may temper the
overall severe threat as convection shifts northeast into a somewhat
less favorable environment. While a severe thunderstorm watch does not
appear imminent at this time, convective trends are being monitored,
both with activity across northern IA as well as further west across
northeast NE/southeast SD. If better organized clusters develop, a
watch could become necessary.
..Leitman/Bunting.. 08/27/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 44159610 44259541 44179345 44029257 43759202 43259193
42779202 42539265 42339426 42219599 42169667 42689678
44069644 44159610
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Fri, 27 Aug 2021 03:46:03 +0000
SPC Aug 27, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0813 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Valid 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
MONTANA...SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
tonight in a broad area from central Montana into South Dakota and
Nebraska, eastward through Iowa and into southwest Wisconsin.
...SD/NE east to IA and southwest Great Lakes...
Considerable convective activity during the day has led to the
placement of several boundaries draped across the NE/IA vicinity this
evening. The airmass south of the boundaries is extremely unstable
across eastern NE (5600 J/kg MLCAPE on the Omaha raob) where a
reservoir of rich low-level moisture resides beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates. The primary uncertainty this forecast pertains to the
evolution of storms during the evening and into the overnight as a LLJ
strengthens across the central Great Plains. Mid-level heights are
expected to gradually fall across this region overnight but the
primary mid-level disturbance will remain mostly displaced to the
northwest of the region. Several clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely develop during the evening and become more
widespread through the late evening and into the overnight. Widely
scattered severe gusts are possible and a risk for large hail will
potentially accompany the more intense updrafts. Please reference MCD
#1614 for the latest short-term details across SD and NE.
...MT...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water-vapor imagery
this evening, will move east tonight reaching the western Dakotas by
daybreak. An cluster of storms over central MT this evening will
continue through the evening as this activity spreads east. The 00z
Glasgow raob showed a modestly moist and weakly unstable airmass
across eastern MT with 600 J/kg MLCAPE. A wind profile supporting
organized storms will aid in some of the stronger storms to be capable
of a wind/hail risk through the late evening hours before this
activity weakens late.
..Smith.. 08/27/2021
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Fri, 27 Aug 2021 01:22:29 +0000
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