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LU9DCE > ALERT 02.10.21 21:34z 157 Lines 6429 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6329_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-OCT.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<SK0BO<SM0YOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 211002/2130Z 6329@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 10:26:02 +0000
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 10:26:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct2 10:26:02 UTC 2021.
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 10:25:07 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct2 10:26:02 UTC 2021.
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 10:25:06 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts will be possible
across parts of the lower Ohio and western Tennessee Valley Sunday
afternoon.
...Lower Ohio and Western Tennessee Valleys...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the lower
Ohio and western Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to advance eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley. A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of the front in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, where surface
dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s F. In response, a narrow
corridor of moderate instability could develop ahead of the front by
Sunday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop near
the front eastward across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
during the day. The storms that form within the corridor of
strongest instability, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be in
the 25 to 35 kt range, could have potential for strong wind gusts
mainly during the mid to late afternoon.
..Broyles.. 10/02/2021
Read more
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 06:00:01 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the
eastern United States on Monday. No severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the lower Ohio
Valley and lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the day along and ahead of the front from the
central Gulf Coast north-northeastward into the central Appalachians
as destabilization occurs. In addition to the instability, which
will be marginal for severe storms, deep-layer shear along most of
this corridor will be relatively weak. This should limit the
potential for organized convection and a severe threat is not
forecast across the continental United States Monday or Monday
night.
..Broyles.. 10/02/2021
Read more
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 07:05:28 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
From Tuesday to Thursday, the medium-range models move an
upper-level low slowly northward from the Southeast to the mid
Mississippi Valley. The moist sector should be located from the
eastern Gulf Coast States northward into the Ohio Valley, where
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible each day. Model
forecasts keep instability weak across most of the moist sector each
afternoon suggesting that the potential for severe storms will be
low during the mid-week time frame.
...Friday/Day 7 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday and Saturday, the models move an upper-level ridge across
the central U.S. while an upper-level trough progresses eastward
from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern and central
Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
upper-level trough in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
eastward to the Carolinas. However, instability is forecast to be
relatively weak keeping any severe threat low late in the week.
Read more
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 08:41:42 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A closed upper-level low will propagate through the Southern Plains
and merge with a mid-level trough positioned over the north-central
CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge will take hold across the
West, with a zone of enhanced mid-level flow entering the northern
periphery of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, localized
elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of
north-central Montana and across western areas of the Dakotas, where
surface winds approaching 15 mph should develop by mid afternoon
amid RH values approaching the low 20s and perhaps upper teens in a
few locations. Otherwise, dry conditions and light surface winds
should prevail across much of the West, resulting in minimal
fire-weather concerns.
..Karstens.. 10/02/2021
Read more
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 05:41:36 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge positioned over the West is forecast to become
more amplified throughout the forecast period. This should result in
a predominately light/variable flow regime aloft, with any
appreciable mid-level flow being confined to the far northern areas
of the Pacific Northwest and into parts of southern Canada.
Consequently, dry conditions and light surface winds are expected at
the surface in most areas, with perhaps localized elevated
fire-weather conditions once again possible across portions of
north-central Montana during the afternoon as winds approach 15 mph
amid RH values falling into the low 20s.
..Karstens.. 10/02/2021
Read more
Sat, 02 Oct 2021 05:43:36 +0000
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