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LU9DCE > ALERT 15.10.21 19:37z 103 Lines 4577 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7002_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 15-OCT21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 211015/1931Z 7002@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Fri, 15 Oct 2021 02:48:01 +0000
Fri, 15 Oct 2021 02:48:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 15 02:48:01 UTC 2021.
Fri, 15 Oct 2021 02:47:07 +0000
MD 1861 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021
Areas affected...Much of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150246Z - 150515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An area of increasing thunderstorm activity may evolve
into a small organizing cluster near the Interstate 40 and 44
corridors, across and east-northeast of the Oklahoma City
metropolitan area, through Midnight-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a southward advancing cold front, large-scale
ascent driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection appears to be
in the process of strengthening across southwestern into central
Oklahoma.Latest model output suggests that, as this continues to
develop east-northeastward through late evening, it may become
augmented by forcing for ascent associated with a focused area of
increasingly divergent upper flow, between a pair of coupled,
cyclonic upper jets across the central and southern Great Plains.
The primary mid-level short wave impulse, and colder mid-level air,
may pass to the northwest of the region, and an initially warm,
subsident layer, based near or below 500 mb, may hinder
destabilization.However, deepening low-level moisture return,
above a boundary-layer stabilizing with the loss of daytime heating,
is expected to become sufficient to support the initiation of an
upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms near the Oklahoma City
metropolitan area by 04-06Z.
Due to the weak mid-level lapse rates, supportive of only weak to
perhaps modest CAPE (generally on the order of 500-750 J/kg), and
stable near-surface layer, potential for severe hail and wind seems
low, but remains uncertain.Much may depend on strengthening of
low-level flow and the extent of low-level hodograph enlargement in
the vicinity of the developing cluster.Most model output has
suggested that this will remain relatively modest, but with perhaps
a mesoscale area of strengthening that could support substantive
updraft rotation and storm organization, particularly east-northeast
of the Oklahoma City overnight.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/15/2021
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON35379873 35949733 36179631 35519561 34979712 34999859
35379873
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Fri, 15 Oct 2021 02:47:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible tonight
from northeastern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley region, and
across portions of Oklahoma.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding convective evolution remain. High-PW
plume continues ahead of the front from the lower MS Valley into the
Midwest region. An apparent weak mid-level disturbance is lifting
northeast along this corridor and should continue to aid convection
through sunrise. Given the strength of the wind field will maintain
low probabilities for gusty winds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado.
Upstream, mid-level height falls will be noted across the central
Plains ahead of a short-wave trough. This feature will encourage a
cold front to surge south across the High Plains which should aid
convergence for convective development later this evening. 00z
sounding from OUN exhibited modest buoyancy, but notably capped at
850mb. As a result, scattered elevated thunderstorms should spread
east-northeast later tonight with some potential for marginally
severe hail.
..Darrow.. 10/15/2021
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Fri, 15 Oct 2021 00:36:45 +0000
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