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LU9DCE > ALERT 16.10.21 15:36z 103 Lines 4583 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7054_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-OCT21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 211016/1531Z 7054@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sat, 16 Oct 2021 03:33:01 +0000
Sat, 16 Oct 2021 03:33:01 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 16 03:33:01 UTC 2021.
Sat, 16 Oct 2021 03:32:08 +0000
MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021
Areas affected...northern and northeast KY...southwest and southern
OH
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160244Z - 160445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible tonight owing to
organized thunderstorms episodically intensifying in a moist, weakly
unstable, but strong deep-layer shear environment.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
over southeastern IN and central KY as of 0240z.This activity is
located on/near the cold front.Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum located over the Ozarks this evening,
and this feature will continue to approach the OH Valley tonight as
large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening mid- to high-level
flow overspread the region.
The 00z Wilmington, OH raob showed a moist boundary layer but poor
lapse rates and only meager MUCAPE (200 J/kg).It was noted that
recent RAP forecast soundings appeared too aggressive with MUCAPE
While it seems probable that this activity will be somewhat limited
in overall intensity, an isolated risk for damaging gusts could
develop with any more organized/persistent storm structures late
this evening into the early overnight.
..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON39018492 39638343 39578266 38968225 38128282 37828420
37588499 38118526 39018492
Read more
Sat, 16 Oct 2021 02:45:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to occasional severe thunderstorm development remains
possible this evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley, and
overnight across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great
Lakes vicinity.
...01Z Outlook Update...
Strong pre-frontal forcing for ascent has contributed to the
evolution and maintenance of the squall line now spreading into
western portions of middle Tennessee and adjacent northeastern
Mississippi Valley.It appears that mid/upper support will begin to
shift north-northeastward toward the upper Ohio Valley by late
evening, as a vigorous upstream short wave trough pivots northeast
of the middle Mississippi Valley.Until this occurs, boundary-layer
instability ahead of the squall line may remain marginally
supportive of renewed vigorous thunderstorm development this evening
across middle Tennessee into the parts of the Cumberland Plateau.
Convection is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt
southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow, which will contribute to
continuing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado or two, before storms wane late this evening.
As a surface cyclone deepens over eastern southern Ontario into
southwestern Quebec overnight, deepening surface troughing to its
south, across western New York state into western Pennsylvania, may
become the focus for at least scattered intensifying thunderstorm
development after 16/06Z.It appears that a relatively moist
boundary layer across this region will remain characterized by
modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence of
strengthening south-southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric wind
fields, which will become increasingly conducive to organized
convective development (potentially including supercell structures).
..Kerr.. 10/16/2021
Read more
Sat, 16 Oct 2021 00:59:44 +0000
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