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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.10.21 15:37z 84 Lines 3401 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7106_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 17-OCT21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 211017/1530Z 7106@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Sun, 17 Oct 2021 03:23:02 +0000
Sun, 17 Oct 2021 03:23:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 17 03:23:02 UTC 2021.
Sun, 17 Oct 2021 03:22:16 +0000
MD 1875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
Areas affected...southeast MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170321Z - 170415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.The
expected coverage and magnitude of the potential severe risk will
preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to progress eastward across
southern New England.A frontal-forced convective band has
developed over RI and is moving east-northeastward into southeastern
MA.With the negatively tilted mid-upper trough over the region,
expecting at least a maintenance of convection due in large part to
strong forcing for ascent.Buoyancy will remain scant but downdraft
potential in the form of stronger gusts is not entirely out of the
question.As a result, some limited risk for a damaging gust could
materialize, especially if convection intensifies.
..Smith/Guyer.. 10/17/2021
ATTN...WFO...BOX...
LAT...LON42087123 42347096 42297067 41947054 41547084 41387141
42087123
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Sun, 17 Oct 2021 03:22:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...FAR EASTERN
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...SUMMARY...
A narrow line of thunderstorms could still develop across parts of
southeastern New England late this evening and pose some risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts.
...01Z Outlook Update...
The narrowing warm sector of the occluding cyclone over western
Quebec is now generally confined to portions of southeastern New
England.Warm layers aloft continue to inhibit destabilization of
the seasonably moist boundary layer, as the mid-level cold core of
the approaching mid/upper trough lags to the west of the eastward
advancing surface cold front.However, it is still possible that
lift along the front, beneath increasingly difluent upper flow,
could support renewed strengthening of convection in a narrow line
that could impact parts of southeastern New England by 03-04Z.If
this occurs, precipitation loading could aid downward transport of
higher momentum (including 40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer),
contributing to the risk for potentially damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 10/17/2021
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Sun, 17 Oct 2021 00:37:05 +0000
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