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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.10.21 15:39z 136 Lines 5763 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7416_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 24-OCT21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<VE3UIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 211024/1530Z 7416@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
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Sun, 24 Oct 2021 02:58:02 +0000
Sun, 24 Oct 2021 02:58:02 +0000
general
1
WW 530 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 240255Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Iowa
Northeast Kansas
Northern Missouri
Southeast Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 955 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across northeast
Kansas and much of northern Missouri into southeast Nebraska and
southern Iowa late this evening into the overnight. The strongest
storms will be capable of large hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from Beatrice NE to 15 miles
east southeast of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Guyer
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Sun, 24 Oct 2021 02:55:05 +0000
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0530 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Sun, 24 Oct 2021 02:55:07 +0000
MD 1886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0914 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Areas affected...far northeast Kansas and southeast
Nebraska...northern Missouri...far western Illinois and southern
Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240214Z - 240445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop around 03Z over
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, and persist eastward across
northern Missouri and into western Illinois. Large hail is possible
with the strongest cells.
DISCUSSION...A warm front will gradually lift north across eastern
KS and MO tonight, with increasing lift as a 50-60 kt low-level jet
develops. Theta-e advection is forecast to be maximized over
southeast NE into northern MO, and moistening just off the surface
should eventually lift the capping inversion seen on 00Z soundings
between 850 and 700 mb.
Temperatures aloft become cooler with northern extent, with 500 mb
values of -12 to -13 C expected over the MCD area. Forecast
soundings suggest instability will be sufficient to produce hail, in
combination with 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2021
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON39399238 39459562 39579678 39989727 40029737 40889735
40889167 40689115 40469091 39599098 39389123 39399238
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Sun, 24 Oct 2021 02:15:04 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.
...01Z Update...
...Northeast KS/Southeast NE/Far Southwest IA/Northern MO...
Recent surface analysis places a low near DDC, with a warm front
extending east-northeastward from this low across southern KS.
show increasing low-level flow throughout the warm sector to the
south of this warm front. This low-level flow is expected to
continue strengthening as the surface low slowly moves
northeastward. Persistent warm-air advection along this frontal zone
will promote the development of elevated thunderstorms in an arc
from the eastern KS/NE border vicinity eastward across northern MO.
Mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z TOP sounding) are
expected to steep enough to support moderate buoyancy and robust
persistent updrafts. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and modest
hodograph curvature within the storm inflow layer will support the
potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail tonight.
...Far East-Central TX Panhandle/Far Western OK...
Lone supercell in Wheeler and Collingsworth Counties in the far
east-central TX Panhandle may persist for the hour or so before
nocturnal stabilization leads to weakening. Until then, isolated
hail and/or an isolated damaging wind gust may occur.
..Mosier.. 10/24/2021
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Sun, 24 Oct 2021 00:54:48 +0000
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