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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.10.21 15:37z 423 Lines 17600 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7458_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-OCT21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 211025/1530Z 7458@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 03:39:02 +0000
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 03:39:02 +0000
general
1
WW 534 TORNADO AR MO TN 250335Z - 250900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast Arkansas
Missouri Bootheel
West Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1035 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across Arkansas will progress
eastward through the watch area.Storms may intensify, with a risk
of damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles southwest of Little Rock AR to
45 miles northeast of Walnut Ridge AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 532...WW 533...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Hart
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 03:35:02 +0000
WW 533 TORNADO IL MO 242245Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 533
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Illinois
Southeast Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 545 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop eastward across Missouri into
Illinois this evening, with strong winds aloft increasing the risk
of severe storm activity.Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and
large hail will be possible across this region.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Champaign IL to
20 miles southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:43:05 +0000
WW 532 TORNADO AR OK 242045Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and western Arkansas
Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected late this
afternoon along and just ahead of a cold front moving southeastward
across eastern Oklahoma.The storm environment ahead of the front
appears favorable for a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable
of producing damaging winds and large hail.The more
rightward-moving supercells may also pose the threat for a few
tornadoes this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles north of Harrison AR to 50
miles south of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28025.
...Thompson
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:45:06 +0000
WW 531 TORNADO IL MO 241905Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme west central Illinois
Missouri
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storm development is expected this
afternoon along and ahead of a cold front moving from Kansas toward
western Missouri.The storm environment will initially favor
supercells capable of producing a couple of strong tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds.Later this evening, the threat for wind
damage will increase as storms evolve into a more linear mode toward
eastern Missouri, while the threat for tornadoes will persist with
circulations embedded in the line of storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Kirksville
MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.
...Thompson
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:41:04 +0000
WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 03:35:06 +0000
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FAM TO
20 NW FAM TO 20 S STL TO 35 N ALN TO 5 SW SPI TO 15 SSE PIA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
..JEWELL..10/25/21
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 533
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-047-049-
051-055-065-077-079-081-087-101-107-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-
145-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-173-181-183-185-189-191-193-199-
250340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDERBOND CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIANCLARKCLAY
CLINTONCOLESCRAWFORD
CUMBERLANDDE WITT DOUGLAS
EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM
FAYETTEFRANKLINHAMILTON
JACKSONJASPERJEFFERSON
JOHNSONLAWRENCELOGAN
MACON MACOUPINMADISON
MARIONMONROEMONTGOMERY
MOULTRIE PERRYPIATT
PULASKIRANDOLPHRICHLAND
ST. CLAIRSALINESANGAMON
SHELBYUNIONVERMILION
WABASHWASHINGTON WAYNE
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:43:06 +0000
WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MLC TO
5 WSW RKR TO 40 SSW HRO TO 30 NE HRO.
WW 532 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 250400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
..MOSIER..10/25/21
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 532
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-023-029-045-049-065-071-083-089-097-101-105-113-115-127-
129-131-137-141-149-250400-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTERCLEBURNECONWAY
FAULKNER FULTONIZARD
JOHNSONLOGANMARION
MONTGOMERYNEWTONPERRY
POLKPOPE SCOTT
SEARCYSEBASTIANSTONE
VAN BURENYELL
OKC079-089-127-250400-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAINPUSHMATAHA
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:45:07 +0000
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE HRO TO
30 W UNO TO 20 NNW UNO TO 40 SE TBN TO 45 WSW FAM TO 30 W FAM TO
35 SSW STL TO 5 E STL TO 25 WSW SPI.
..JEWELL..10/25/21
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 531
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-091-093-099-149-153-179-189-203-215-221-510-250340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENTHOWELLIRON
JEFFERSONOREGONOZARK
REYNOLDS ST. LOUISSHANNON
TEXAS WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:41:05 +0000
MD 1897 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 533... FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...southeast Missouri...central and southern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 533...
Valid 250333Z - 250600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 533 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two
persists across the watch area, and generally will decrease with
time and eastward extent.
DISCUSSION...Storms have largely transitioned to a more linear storm
mode as opposed to isolated supercells, most notably over southeast
MO where an earlier cluster outbreak of tornadoes occurred. Various
storms appear to contain damaging wind potential, with a few severe
gusts measured recently. Shear remains strong across the area ahead
of the cold front which now extends from western IL into southeast
MO.
Surface observations show relatively drier trajectories across TN
and KY, with 50s dewpoints into IN and parts of southeastern IL. As
such, the greatest severe threat in the short term will remain from
central IL into southeast MO where dewpoints remain in the 60s F
with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Transient supercells remain possible,
either in isolated or embedded within the lines.
..Jewell.. 10/25/2021
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON39628781 38958806 37998834 37638849 37258894 36818955
36569036 36559173 36799179 37369106 38119028 38698987
39438972 40278996 40488955 40458903 40268820 40088785
39888769 39628781
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 03:34:05 +0000
MD 1896 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 532... FOR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL AR...SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Areas affected...Northern/West-Central AR...Southeast OK
Concerning...Tornado Watch 532...
Valid 250233Z - 250400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two is
expected to continue for the next few hours. An additional watch
will likely be needed over portions of the region before Tornado
Watch 532 expires at 04Z.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to progress
eastward from north-central AR southwestward into southeast OK. A
few storms did show some organization earlier, but now much of the
activity has transitioned back to a somewhat disorganized mode along
the front. The only exception is the cell in Johnson County AR which
has recently strengthened. Additionally, a few more discrete storms
have begun to develop within the warm sector ahead of the line.
The low-level kinematic environment throughout the warm sector is
quite impressive. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 0-1 km
storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across
north-central/northeast AR. As a result, the threat for tornadoes
still exists with any more discrete storms that can maintain a
robust updraft. Strong wind gusts are the primary threat with any
storms along the front.
Given the current storm motion, expectation for the severe threat to
persist, and a watch expiration time of 04Z, an additional watch
will likely be needed over portions of the region to cover the
continuing threat.
..Mosier.. 10/25/2021
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON34749523 35599394 36039345 36419304 36469278 36389108
34849193 34259277 34339536 34749523
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 02:34:03 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail
and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from parts of the Ozarks
into the middle Mississippi Valley the remainder of this evening
into tonight. Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will also
be possible along the Oregon/Washington coast.
...Synopsis...
A well-defined mid-level trough is progressing eastward toward the
central MS Valley, and is coupled with a surface low, centered over
northeastern MO, which is poised to move into the OH Valley
overnight. A cold front trails the surface low across central MO
into eastern OK/north-central TX, while a warm front ahead of the
low gradually lifts northeastward eastern MO into central IL/IN.
Widespread 70-80F temperatures, coupled with 60-65 F dewpoints and
overspread by 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
adequate buoyancy for continued scattered strong to severe storms
across the MO Valley into the central MS Valley this evening into
tonight.
Along the Pacific Northwest Coast, a potent mid-level trough
continues to amplify across the region. Strong kinematic flow fields
are in place, with 30-50 kts of 925-850 mb flow overlapped by 70-100
kt flow at 500 mb. Though scant, buoyancy may become adequate enough
to support a very isolated severe threat along the WA/OR coastline
with any deep-moist convection that can become established.
...MO Valley into the Mid-MS Valley through tonight...
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms (some showing
transient supercellular structures) are ongoing along and ahead of
the cold front across central MO into eastern OK and northern TX, as
well as with a secondary confluence band across eastern MO into
northern AR. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE exists ahead of the cold
front/south of the warm front, within the LLJ axis from southwest IL
into AR, where 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH is present. As such, any
supercell or embedded rotating line segment that can become
sustained may pose a tornado/damaging wind threat this evening
through tonight.
Strong to occasionally severe line segments have also been
traversing the warm front across central/northern IL. Though these
storms will cross the LLJ axis this evening into tonight, the more
buoyant surface-based airmass has struggled to reach this convection
thus far. Nonetheless, given the highly sheared, at least marginally
buoyant environment, a couple damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out through tonight.
...OR/WA Coastline...
While surface temperatures along the WA/OR coastline are barely
reaching 60F (with dewpoints struggling to exceed the mid 40s F),
6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading the coastline,
supporting patchy areas of marginal buoyancy. The aforementioned
strong kinematic fields will support 50+ kts of effective bulk
shear/200 m2/s2 effective SRH. As such, a damaging gust and or
perhaps a brief tornado may accompany any sustained updraft that can
develop tonight.
..Squitieri.. 10/25/2021
Read more
Mon, 25 Oct 2021 01:05:16 +0000
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