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LU9DCE > ALERT 29.10.21 19:37z 162 Lines 6325 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7618_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 29-OCT.21
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 211029/1931Z 7618@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 Eduardo A. Castillo
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Storm Prediction Center
en-us
None
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 08:12:02 +0000
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 08:12:02 +0000
general
1
No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 29 08:12:02 UTC 2021.
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 08:11:05 +0000
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 29 08:12:02 UTC 2021.
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 08:11:06 +0000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PATS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur today over parts of
coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic. Marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threat.
...Eastern North Carolina/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley
today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over much of the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a warm front will move
north-northeastward from eastern North Carolina this morning to
Maryland this afternoon. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be located near the warm front with surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F extending about 100 statute miles inland.
Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front during the
day as surface temperatures warm. Although instability will remain
weak, RAP forecast soundings along the Mid-Atlantic Coast have 0-6
km shear in the 70 to 80 knot range this afternoon. In addition, 0-3
km storm relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2. This
suggests that a marginal tornado threat could develop with rotating
cells that interact with the front. An isolated wind-damage threat
may develop, but any severe threat should remain very localized.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/29/2021
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 05:49:55 +0000
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from the central Appalachians to the
Adirondacks while weakening during the period.Strong forcing for
ascent and the development of pockets of weak buoyancy may yield a
few elevated thunderstorms over New England.Farther west, a
mid-level low will weaken over as it moves from offshore the
northern CA coast into southern OR.A few lightning flashes are
possible with weak convection in association with this upper system.
Elsewhere, relatively tranquil conditions will prevail over a large
part of the Lower 48 states.
..Smith.. 10/29/2021
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 05:51:57 +0000
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will not occur on Sunday throughout the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify/expand across the Midwest and
maintain cyclonic flow from the Prairie Provinces through the
Midwest and into the lower Great Lakes.At the surface, high
pressure will extend from the northern High Plains through much of
the area east of the Rockies.Mid-level moisture and a series of
very weak disturbances within a moderate belt of westerly flow will
move across northern UT and CO.Weak convection may yield a few
lightning flashes with this activity.Elsewhere, tranquil
conditions will prevail.
..Smith.. 10/29/2021
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 06:47:45 +0000
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern will characterize the extended
period and a low-potential highlight of severe weather for each day.
Surface high pressure will generally be located over the central
U.S. with little in the way of return flow into the northern Gulf
Coast during the latter part of the period.
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 08:11:50 +0000
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis...
A large upper low, currently over the Tennessee Valley, will move
northeast into the Ohio Valley through the day today. A surface low
will also accompany this upper low and follow a similar path. On the
western periphery of this broad cyclone, dry and windy northerly
winds are expected across portions of the southern Plains. This is
forecast to occur as a result of a strong surface pressure gradient
as well as deep mixing. This will lead to strengthening surface
winds across much of western and central Oklahoma into a large
portion of northern/central and southern Texas. However, much of
this area has seen significant rainfall recently. Therefore, the
elevated outline has been confined to western portions of this area
where little to no recent rainfall has fallen and fuels are drier.
..Bentley.. 10/29/2021
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 05:59:30 +0000
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Mostly benign fire weather conditions are expected on Saturday. Some
dry and breezy conditions may develop in portions of southeast
Colorado and western Kansas in the wake of a southward-moving cold
front. However, fuels are not that dry in this area due to recent
rainfall. Elsewhere conditions will be too moist or winds too light
for fire weather concerns.
..Bentley.. 10/29/2021
Read more
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 06:00:20 +0000
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