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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.12.21 16:03z 141 Lines 5648 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 376_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-DIC.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 211210/1530Z 376@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Fri, 10 Dec 2021
03:51:02 +0000 Fri, 10 Dec 2021 03:51:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 10 03:51:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Fri Dec 10 03:51:02 UTC 2021. Fri, 10
Dec 2021 03:50:15 +0000
SPC MD 1974 MD 1974 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
WYOMING...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949
PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wyoming...southern South
Dakota...and northern Nebraska
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 100349Z - 100845Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr are expected to develop
tonight from eastern Wyoming and spread east-northeastward across
southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...A band of strong low/mid-level warm air advection
preceding a deepening low-pressure system over eastern Colorado will
gradually overspread portions of the central Great Plains during the
overnight hours. As the increasing ascent moves over deepening
subfreezing layers per the latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings,
chances for heavy snowfall will gradually increase. A band of moderate
snow is already in progress along the Nebraska/South Dakota border,
which is contributing to low/mid-level saturation.
The heavy snow will most likely develop across parts of eastern
Wyoming and northwestern Nebraska, before shifting north/east across
southern South Dakota and north-central Nebraska in the 06-09Z
timeframe as suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance.
Latest forecast soundings suggest deep/saturated dendritic growth
zones colocated with strong ascent aided by the plume of warm air
advection. These factors, combined with a developing frontogenetic
circulation will support snowfall rates of 1-1.5 in/hr.
..Weinman/Squitieri.. 12/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 41890447 42230446 42770444 43100412 43290334 43330163
43309973 43219902 42919907 42469902 42239928 42200009
42210073 42230157 42230266 42170318 42080343 41890368
41810398 41820429 41890447
Read more
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 03:50:04 +0000
SPC MD 1973 MD 1973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 1973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945
PM CST Thu Dec 09 2021
Areas affected...southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100345Z - 100445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...There will be a brief tornado threat across southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle for the next 1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Deepening convection has moved in off the Gulf of Mexico
and is currently merging with the ongoing convective cluster across
southern Alabama. This merger, in close proximity to the warm front,
has led to a small area of low-level rotation near Mobile. This will
likely be very short lived given the messy storm mode and marginal
thermodynamic environment. However, a similar airmass exists into the
western Florida Peninsula and therefore, additional storm mergers and
strengthening cells in close proximity to the warm front could lead to
other areas of low-level rotation exhibiting a brief tornado threat.
..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...
LAT...LON 30828822 30838769 30718712 30468706 30258744 30278792
30358825 30648838 30808836 30828822
Read more
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 03:46:04 +0000
SPC Dec 10, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM
CST Thu Dec 09 2021
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Gulf States...
Low-amplitude disturbance is translating northeast across MS/southeast
LA early this evening. This feature appears responsible for weak
supercells that have now progressed into southern MS and weakened. 00z
sounding from LIX exhibits MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg with surface
parcels buoyant within a poor lapse rate environment. However,
downstream boundary-layer air mass is more stable and any
thunderstorms that form ahead of this feature should become
increasingly elevated. Soundings at both BMX and FCC suggest
significant destabilization is necessary for deep convection capable
of generating lightning. Even so, a few thunderstorms may develop
later tonight as elevated buoyancy increases ahead of the weak
disturbance.
..Darrow.. 12/10/2021
Read more
Fri, 10 Dec 2021 00:35:10 +0000
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