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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.12.21 15:33z 101 Lines 4029 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 463_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-DIC.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<ON0AR<GB7CIP<EI2GYB<VE3CGR<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 211212/1530Z 463@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 12 Dec 2021
03:01:02 +0000 Sun, 12 Dec 2021 03:01:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 12 03:01:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Sun Dec 12 03:01:02 UTC 2021. Sun, 12
Dec 2021 03:00:13 +0000
SPC MD 2024 MD 2024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH
UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 2024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849
PM CST Sat Dec 11 2021
Areas affected...portions of Massachusetts...southern New Hampshire
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 120249Z - 120445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple strong wind gusts may accompany a low-topped line
of showers progressing across portions of New England over the next
couple of hours. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Very strong deep-layer ascent associated with a 70+ kt
LLJ, overspread by a 100-150 kt 300 mb jet streak, is contributing to
the forcing of a low-topped line of showers. Current MRMS mosaic radar
data shows 30 dBZ echoes struggling to reach 20 kft. Nonetheless, the
GYX 00Z observed sounding depicted 50 kt wind speeds around 500 m AGL,
suggesting that any efficient mechanical downward momentum transport
within the low-topped line of showers may support continued strong
wind gusts for the next few hours, until the line moves off shore.
Nonetheless, buoyancy is negligible across New England. As such,
organized/widespread severe winds seem unlikely, and a WW issuance is
not expected.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 42287366 42847299 43257261 43357205 43447128 43407071
42957043 42387037 42147065 42087129 42047209 42077265
42147336 42287366
Read more
Sun, 12 Dec 2021 02:50:05 +0000
SPC Dec 12, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM
CST Sat Dec 11 2021
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early tonight across
parts of the Mid Atlantic.
...Middle Atlantic...
Lightning has decreased substantially with pre frontal convection from
GA north into the middle Atlantic with only sparse flashes noted
within the stronger updrafts. Intense mid-level height falls are
spreading across the northeastern US/southeast Canada ahead of the
progressive trough. Southern influence of this stronger forcing is
expected to aid a narrow band of frontal convection across eastern PA
over the next few hours. Some semblance of this process is noted in
radar with a narrow band of weak convection observed from
SLK-RME-BGM-MDT. This activity may increase a bit as it spreads across
the middle Atlantic. Thus will maintain low probabilities for damaging
winds and perhaps a brief weak tornado, despite cloud tops struggling
to attain heights necessary for lightning.
..Darrow.. 12/12/2021
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Sun, 12 Dec 2021 00:40:46 +0000
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