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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.12.21 20:34z 239 Lines 10735 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 563_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-DIC.21
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<EI2GYB<N5MDT<KA1VSC<LU9DCE
Sent: 211214/1931Z 563@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Tue, 14 Dec 2021
07:43:02 +0000 Tue, 14 Dec 2021 07:43:02 +0000 general 1
SPC Forecast Products
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 14 07:43:02 UTC 2021 No
watches are valid as of Tue Dec 14 07:43:02 UTC 2021. Tue, 14
Dec 2021 07:42:08 +0000
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Dec 14 07:43:02 UTC 2021
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 14
07:43:02 UTC 2021. Tue, 14 Dec 2021 07:42:09 +0000
SPC Dec 14, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 1200Z Day
1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM
CST Mon Dec 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from portions of the West Coast to
the Four Corners region, as well as across parts of eastern and
southern Florida.
...Western US...
Strong 500mb speed max will rotate through the base of the progressive
western US trough into southern CA after 18z then intensify as the
short-wave trends toward negative tilt over the Four Corners region by
sunrise Wednesday. 180m 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread
southern CA early as exit region of the aforementioned speed max
approaches. Forecast soundings around the LA basin suggest buoyancy
will increase through 18z with modestly steep lapse rates in the
lowest 3-4km. This is where the majority of instability will reside
thus frontal convection may struggle to attain heights necessary for
appreciable lightning. Even so, 50+kt 850mb southwesterly LLJ may
contribute to gusty winds with a shallow band of frontal convection.
At this time it appears convective winds will remain below severe
levels but activity should be organized with the surging cold front.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread/develop east across
portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners region by
the end of the period as very cold mid-level temperatures and steep
lapse rates overspread this region late.
...FL Peninsula...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across eastern/southern FL in
advance of the weak short wave trough that is drifting southeast.
Weak low-level convergence along with moist easterly flow into this
region suggest a few updrafts may produce lightning.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/14/2021
Read more
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 05:43:29 +0000
SPC Dec 14, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook SPC 0700Z Day
2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM
CST Mon Dec 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
A band of strong storms is expected to develop over the mid Missouri
Valley during the afternoon on Wednesday, shifting quickly toward the
upper Mississippi Valley into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will
be possible along the leading edge of this band.
...Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies
to the mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the system,
low-level moisture advection will take place with surface dewpoints
reaching near 60 F across parts of northern Missouri and Iowa. In
spite of this, instability will remain weak ahead of the approaching
trough. A warm nose associated with a powerful 100 knot 700 mb jet is
forecast to overspread southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa during the
afternoon. Model forecasts are in reasonable agreement that convection
will initiate nearer to the surface low to the west and north of Omaha
around 21Z. A line is forecast to move quickly northeastward across
western and northern Iowa into southern Minnesota during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon along this corridor
have very strong wind fields with 50 to 60 knots of flow at 300 meters
above ground level. Convection that develops in this environment
should be able to drive this flow to the surface producing damaging
wind gusts. Have introduced a small slight risk for parts of western
and northern Iowa into far southern Minnesota along the expected path
of the line of storms.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks...
A shortwave trough will move into the southern High Plains Wednesday
night as a cold front advances southeastward across the central
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
into the lower to mid 60s F yielding MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg
range. Model forecasts along the instability corridor suggests that
convective initiation will take place during the late evening into the
overnight period. Storms are expected to increase in coverage moving
southeastward into the Ozarks. Although instability will remain weak,
low to mid-level flow could be strong enough for a marginal
wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 12/14/2021
Read more
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 05:56:57 +0000
SPC Dec 14, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC
0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM
CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Thursday
across parts of the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley.
....Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the mid
Mississippi Valley on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow
becomes established in the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will advance southeastward across the Arklatex and southern
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s
F should yield SBCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by afternoon. As
low-level convergence increases ahead of the front, isolated to
scattered convective initiation is forecast to take place in the early
to mid afternoon. The weak instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat,
mainly from northeast Texas into Arkansas. The best chance for strong
wind gusts may be in southern Arkansas where the combination of
instability and shear is forecast to become maximized relative to the
surrounding areas. Any severe threat may persist into the early
evening before weakening instability decreases the threat.
..Broyles.. 12/14/2021
Read more
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 07:33:44 +0000
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249
AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...
...Synopsis...
A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough will quickly progress across the
Interior West today, promoting rapid deepening of a surface low/lee
trough across High Plains during the afternoon. Dry and breezy
southwesterly surface conditions will develop across the southern High
Plains, promoting some potential for wildfire spread. 15-25 mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds are expected to coincide with
widespread 20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating for at least a
couple of hours, from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
Elevated highlights have been maintained where these favorable
conditions will overspread very dry fuels that are quite receptive to
wildfire growth. Low-end critical highlights have been maintained
across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, where confidence remains in RH
dropping to 15 percent for a couple of hours.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 06:50:40 +0000
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook SPC Day 2 Fire Weather
Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140
AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND MUCH OF WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...Synopsis...
A volatile fire weather day is expected across portions of the central
Plains for tomorrow/Wednesday. A potent mid-level shortwave trough
will eject into the Plains states, with a 110+ kt mid-level jet streak
overspreading the central High Plains during the afternoon hours.
Rapid surface low intensification (perhaps to 990 mb) will ensue as
the low surges towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some of the
latest guidance depicts a 75 kt 850 mb jet accompanying this surface
low, which will also overspread a mixing boundary layer during the
afternoon. As such, gradient flow and downward momentum transport will
encourage dangerously windy/dry surface conditions atop extremely dry
fuels, with ERCs reaching the 98th percentile in spots.
Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the far
northern Texas Panhandle into western and Central Kansas, where
guidance consensus depicts widespread 30+ mph sustained southwesterly
surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few
hours. Given the boundary layer mixing of the strong LLJ winds only a
few hundred feet above the ground, 45+ mph sustained winds may occur
in a few spots, especially in west-central or southwest Kansas.
Surrounding the Extremely Critical delineation, Critical/Elevated
highlights have been introduced where widespread 20+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly winds are expected to overlap with 15-20 percent RH
for a few hours tomorrow afternoon.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Tue, 14 Dec 2021 07:42:47 +0000
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